Central Asia and the Caspian Sea: a Trap or Salvation?

The "gas war" with Ukraine has once again emphasised the importance of gas reserves in the Central Asian republics. They have long since become one of the elements of a major geopolitical game.

Russia has to date managed to retain control of gas flows from that region thanks to the Soviet gas transport system. It has even been able to get a monopoly on purchasing gas in Central Asia having successfully driven Ukraine from that market.

However, considering that a new gas pipeline is being built from Turkmenistan to China, the lie of the land is set to change, significantly. Even Europe actively announces diversifying gas supplies, including by creating new channels to deliver Asian gas to its market.

Turkey also steps up efforts to create a Trans-Turkic corridor for gas supplies from Central Asia to Europe.

The new export routes will give more confidence to the Central Asian rulers who have even without that achieved considerable success in negotiating the price of their fuel with Russia.

It is also obvious that the Caspian region will remain central to the US under the new administration.

The report offers an in-depth discussion of the following subjects:

• The real gas potential of the region

  • The problem of estimating gas reserves in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan
  • Should the local leaders and the assessors they hire be trusted?
  • The most recent assessment of reserves in Turkmenistan and its shadow side
  • Potential for increasing production in the Central Asian countries

• Development prospects for new routes

  • War of projects: a comparison of alternative pipelines
  • Financial and political risks
  • Current status
  • Weak and strong points

• The commercial and geopolitical interests of the key players

  • Opportunities for Gazprom to preserve its monopoly
  • The risks of the selected strategy for retaining control over Central Asian gas

• Possible developments

The contents of the report: