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Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact

Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact

Vladimir Putin declared the need for an urgent update of strategic documents on the fuel and energy sector as far back as 14 April 2022.

The Energy Strategy to 2050 was originally supposed to be approved before 15 September 2022, yet it was never adopted even as of November 2023. Moreover, not even a draft of the ES 2050 has been published yet.

On the one hand, this vividly demonstrates the attitude to strategic documents on energy. It turns out that the industry on the whole copes with the unprecedented pressure of sanctions even without official strategies. On the other hand, Russian oil and gas has been facing really serious challenges that cannot be taken lightly. And immediate problems are a reflection of long-term threats too.

You will find the following subjects in the new NESF report:

Evolution of the Energy Strategy development and approval mechanism

How the previous strategies were drawn up and why they never became documents actually setting the framework for oil and gas industry development in Russia
Birth injuries of Energy Strategies
Major oil and gas corporations’ attitude to the Energy Strategy

Preliminary results of the implementation of the Energy Strategy 2035

Whether the stated indicators for 2024, the period when an interim stage of the ES 2035 implementation ends, will be achieved

Strategic goal-setting:

What tasks Vladimir Putin laid down to the ES 2050 authors

How work on the ES 2050 is getting on

Why the document has not seen the light of day to date

Actual strategic fork:

Fossil fuels vs. the energy transition
How Russian authorities see this dilemma and how the role of fossil fuels is perceived in the medium term

New version of the climate doctrine:

Greenwashing or an actual turn in energy policy

Strategic problems in oil and gas

Actual challenges to Russian oil and gas exporters

Contents of the report:

INTRODUCTION	3
ENERGY STRATEGY 2050: TASK-SETTING	5
EVOLUTION OF ENERGY STRATEGY DRAFTING AND ADOPTION MECHANISM	10
PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF ENERGY STRATEGY 2035 IMPLEMENTATION	19
HOW ENERGY STRATEGY 2050 IS DRAFTED. MAIN PROBLEMS	30
KEY INDUSTRY FORK: FOSSIL FUELS VS. ENERGY TRANSITION	36
ACTUAL STRATEGIC PROBLEMS IN OIL AND GAS	45

Date of release:	January 9, 2024

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:

Special report:

Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide

There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.

Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities

The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.

Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality

World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.

Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook

The year 2023 posed a serious challenge to the Russian oil and gas sector that was subjected to extremely tough sanctions that could have led to collapse in exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The oil industry and corresponding regulatory mechanisms were tested throughout the year. The state, being in dire need of financial resources, had to save the chicken that lays golden eggs. How well is it coping with this task?

Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports

The year 2023 saw an even larger drop in Russian exports of pipeline gas to Europe. In the past two years, Gazprom failed to export some 120 bcm of natural gas, and these quantities are now locked up in Russia. Another difficult case concerns extension of the current gas transit contract with Ukraine, which expires at the end of 2024. Gazprom is already looking for new opportunities.

New Logistics of Russian Oil Business

When the G7 and the EU as of 5 December 2022 imposed an embargo on oil from Russia and the price cap mechanism that was later complemented with the same measures against petroleum products, Western analysts confidently predicted inevitable collapse in Russian exports by at least one-third. The new report explains in detail how the mechanism of Russian oil transport and sales works and whether Western companies remain in this business.

Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact

The Energy Strategy to 2050 was originally supposed to be approved before 15 September 2022, yet it was never adopted even as of November 2023. Moreover, not even a draft of the ES 2050 has been published yet. On the one hand, this vividly demonstrates the attitude to strategic documents on energy. It turns out that the industry on the whole copes with the unprecedented pressure of sanctions even without official strategies. On the other hand, Russian oil and gas has been facing really serious challenges that cannot be taken lightly. And immediate problems are a reflection of long-term threats too.

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry

European sanctions and Brussels’ policy of abandoning Russian energy resources plus the destroyed Baltic gas pipelines have shut in Russia a respectable volume of pipeline gas that cannot promptly be sent to alternative markets. This would seem a strong argument in favour of developing LNG production in Russia. The new NESF report must give the answer to the question about what part of the plans for dramatic increase in LNG production in Russia can be considered realistic.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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