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Gazprom during Putin`s latest tenure

Gazprom during Putin`s latest tenure

The past few years have been rather difficult for Gazprom. Competition on foreign markets is growing as well as the pressure by domestic competitors. Moreover, poor results produced by Gazprom in 2012, e.g. decline in production, reduction in its share on the domestic market, decrease in exports and export revenues, enabled its opponents to launch a powerful campaign against the gas giant’s monopoly and against its management.

Besides NOVATEK’s desire to get access to export revenues, there are ambitions of Rosneft that has declared about large-scale plans in the gas sphere and gained control over some gas assets.

Only the sharp improvement of conjuncture in Europe made it possible to repulse this attack with minimal losses, i.e. liberalization of LNG exports. Nevertheless, we can ascertain that the situation in the gas industry has changed profoundly. Three strong bears are now trying to get along together in one ‘gas lair’.

Meanwhile, the situation around Ukraine makes no headway, the European Commission presses Gazprom despite obvious problems with the EU gas balance, and negotiations with China are not easy. It is coupled with new fiscal and tariff policies of the state towards gas producers.

Key topics of the report:

  • Transformation of the gas industry

    • Growth of NOVATEK, ambitions of Rosneft
    • Production strategies of three companies, battle for domestic market
  • Restructuring of Gazprom

    • Mass media reports and reality
    • Lobbied decisions, position of president Putin as supreme arbiter
  • Liberalization of exports

    • Struggle for LNG exports
    • Prospects of discussing free piped gas exports
  • Gazprom’s export policy

    • Relations with the EU
    • Comeback of Russian gas to Europe
    • Eastern vector, negotiations with China and eastern consumers
    • LNG projects of Gazprom
  • Transit problems

    • Gas relations of Russia and Ukraine
    • Situation on Ukrainian gas market
  • Financial and economic situation

    • New tariff and fiscal policies
  • Investment program: epoch of restrictions

  • Forecast of medium-term developments

Contents of the report:

Introduction 4
Chapter 1. Transformation of gas industry: three bears in one lair 5
1.1. General situation in Russia’s gas sector 5
1.2. Production strategies of Gazprom, NOVATEK and Rosneft 9
1.3. Struggle for domestic market 15
1.4. Attempt to raise topic of Gazprom reforms 20
Chapter2. Gazprom on foreign markets: exports returning 21
2.1. Exports to former Soviet republic 21
2.2. Gas exports to Europe and Turkey 25
2.3. Confrontation against European Commission,the future of gas transportation projects 30
Chapter 3. Gazprom and Ukraine: Rubicon crossed? 32
3.1. Political and economic situation around association agreement with the EU 35
3.2. Ukraine’s gas balance. Exclusion of Naftogaz 36
3.3. Virtual reverse supplies 42
3.4. Ukraine’s role of transit state 44
Chapter 4. Eastern vector. Awaiting China 47
4.1. Launch of Kirinskoe deposit, development of gas resource base in the east 47
4.2. Transportation and processing 49
4.3. Forecasted gas balance, talks with China and other options of exports, competition against Rosneft 51
Chapter 5. Financial redistribution, investment limit 55
5.1. Frozen prices in Russia 56
5.2. Taxation press, tax preferences 60
5.3. Investment program: South Stream new driver, Eastern Siberia shadow driver 63
Chapter 6. Medium-term forecast of developments 66
6.1. Administrative attack on Gazprom: second wave 66
6.2. Production, domestic market 68
6.3. Exports and European market 69
6.4. Ukraine, transit risks 70
Date of release: January 21, 2014

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After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.

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