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Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors

Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors

Election campaign in Russia is nearing the final stage. Public political parties compete for State Duma seats. However, the real rivalry is between the «shadow parties» – the elite clans in the Putin’s circle.

Struggle for oil and gas assets is for them the real fundraising campaign. The powerhouses are raising money to promote their president candidates.

The incumbent head of state has so far adhered to the principle of divided control of the oil and gas industry between various clans – eventually we may see two candidates – an «oil» candidate and a «gas» candidate. In the mean time, there is no unanimity inside the clans, which adds intrigue to the president election.

The influence of the election campaign on the oil and gas industry is the subject that the new study by the National Energy Security Fund.

The study dwells on the following questions

  • The current status of property repartition in the oil and gas industry

    • Growing appetites of Gazprom and Rosnef
    • Who the state-owned companies rely on in the election game

  • Victims, present and future

    • Finishing off with Yukos
    • Strike on TNK-BP
    • Criminal case against RussNeft – motives and consequences

  • What awaits Lukoil, Tatneft, Itera, Nortgaz and other large companies in the industry

    • Possible survival strategies

  • Changes to oil and gas industry management

    • Impending layoffs in the government and their influence on the industry’s development

  • The new State Duma and the interests of oil and gas firms

  • Forecast of how the situation will be developing during the election campaign

The content of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Alignment of Forces ahead of the Final Race for Power 4
1.1. Key competitors 4
Chapter 2. Assets Sharing 8
2.1. Offensive Philosophy of the «Security Officials» Clan 8
2.2. Offensive Philosophy of the «Jurists» Clan 13
2.3. Offensive Philosophy of the «Russians» Clan 13
Chapter 3. Potential Victims. Who Will Survive Power Transition? 17
3.1. LUKOIL - the Biggest of the Unharmed 18
3.2. TNK-BP: Along the Same Path 26
3.3. Tatneft: Agonizing Suspense 31
3.4. Independent Gas Companies: Will They Be Left Alone? 32
Conclusion 39
Supplement 1. Main Events of 2007 for Gazprom 40
Supplement 2. Main Events 2007 for Rosneft 49
Supplement 3. Main Events Related to Property Redistribution in the Oil and Gas Industry of Russia (May-September) 52
Date of publication October 8, 2007

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
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Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

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