“Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe

We have entered the year 2010 without “gas war” with Ukraine. Yet, neither this fact nor the completion of the presidential election campaign coupled with Viktor Yushchenko’s retirement as president makes the situation stable and predictable.

Another episode of the Ukrainian political “docusoap” is beginning and it is going to seriously influence both the problem of gas transit via this country and natural gas supplies to its domestic market.

The long-lasting systemic and personal political crisis in Ukraine is one of the major risk factors for Russian gas deliveries to Europe. No wonder that the major suspension in Gazprom’s supplies happened on this route. But the Ukrainian market and its gas transportation system are potentially interesting objects both for corporations and mediatory organizations to manage and generate profits.

Moreover, in the medium-term perspective there will be no real alternative to ensuring fuel transit from Russia to the EU, which makes the interested sides work out tactics and strategy of cooperation regardless of political conjuncture hedging political risks by technical, diplomatic, commercial and PR methods

The report offers an in-depth discussion of the following subjects:

• The new president’s views on the future of gas relations

  • Future changes in the Ukrainian government and new gas and political conflict lines

• The fate of Russian-Ukrainian gas contracts

  • Vitality of the "January 19th system" and results of its first year of functioning. Main weak points.

• The Ukrainian gas market: infrastructure and economy

  • The consumption and distribution system
  • Pricing and the network’s technical condition

• Upcoming bankruptcy of Naftogas

  • The economic crisis in Ukraine and the problem of gas payments
  • Managerial and financial collapse of Naftogas

• Positions of Russia and the EU. Prospects of a gas transportation consortium

  • Modernization Declaration and Eastern Partnership
  • Prospects of applying European rules of access to the gas infrastructure in Ukraine
  • Position of the EU’s new leadership

• Forecast of developments

   

• The new president and a new course

   

• Prospects of reforming the Ukrainian gas market

• New battles within the Russia-EU-Ukraine “gas triangle”

The contents of the report: