 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Main page > Products > The fuel and energy complex of Russia - Series of analytical reports > “Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
“Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
We have entered the year 2010 without “gas war” with Ukraine. Yet, neither this fact nor the completion of the presidential election campaign coupled with Viktor Yushchenko’s retirement as president makes the situation stable and predictable.
Another episode of the Ukrainian political “docusoap” is beginning and it is going to seriously influence both the problem of gas transit via this country and natural gas supplies to its domestic market.
The long-lasting systemic and personal political crisis in Ukraine is one of the major risk factors for Russian gas deliveries to Europe. No wonder that the major suspension in Gazprom’s supplies happened on this route. But the Ukrainian market and its gas transportation system are potentially interesting objects both for corporations and mediatory organizations to manage and generate profits.
Moreover, in the medium-term perspective there will be no real alternative to ensuring fuel transit from Russia to the EU, which makes the interested sides work out tactics and strategy of cooperation regardless of political conjuncture hedging political risks by technical, diplomatic, commercial and PR methods
The report offers an in-depth discussion of the following subjects:
-
The new president’s views on the future of gas relations
- Future changes in the Ukrainian government and new gas and political conflict lines
-
The fate of Russian-Ukrainian gas contracts
- Vitality of the "January 19th system" and results of its first year of functioning. Main weak points.
-
The Ukrainian gas market: infrastructure and economy
- The consumption and distribution system
- Pricing and the network’s technical condition
-
Upcoming bankruptcy of Naftogas
- The economic crisis in Ukraine and the problem of gas payments
- Managerial and financial collapse of Naftogas
-
Positions of Russia and the EU. Prospects of a gas transportation consortium
- Modernization Declaration and Eastern Partnership
- Prospects of applying European rules of access to the gas infrastructure in Ukraine
- Position of the EU’s new leadership
-
Forecast of developments
-
The new president and a new course
-
Prospects of reforming the Ukrainian gas market
-
New battles within the Russia-EU-Ukraine “gas triangle”
The contents of the report:
| Introduction | 2 |
| Chapter 1. System of Gas Transit and Supplies to Ukraine: Open Circuit | 4 |
| 1.1. Development of Relations. Turkmen Problem | 4 |
| 1.2. First Gas War and January 4, 2006 Agreement | 7 |
| 1.3. Second Gas War, New Contractual System of January 19, 2009 | 10 |
| Chapter 2. Ukrainian Gas Market: Infrastructure and Economy | 13 |
| 2.1. Production | 13 |
| 2.2. Gas Transportation System and Underground Gas Storage Facilities | 16 |
| 2.3. Consumer Market Structure and Gas Marketing | 19 |
| 2.4. Gas Distributing Organizations and Attempts to Consolidate Them | 22 |
| 2.5. Pricing on Domestic Gas Market | 24 |
| Chapter 3. Problem of Payments for Russian Gas. Upcoming Bankruptcy of Naftogaz | 26 |
| 3.1. New Pricing and Tariff Formula | 27 |
| 3.2. Naftogaz’s Tax Burden | 31 |
| 3.3. Managerial and Financial Collapse of Naftogaz. Credit Tsunami | 32 |
| Chapter 4. Between Russia and Europe | 35 |
| 4.1. Gas Transportation Consortium and Pipelines Bypassing Ukraine | 35 |
| 4.2. Modernization Declaration and Eastern Partnership | 37 |
| 4.3. Russian-European Deadlock Through Ukrainian Lenses | 40 |
| 4.3. Credit PR | 41 |
| Chapter 5. Forecast of Developments | 43 |
| 5.1. Elections. Results and Perspectives of Formation of New Coalition | 43 |
| 5.2. Gas Relations with Russia. Reanimation of Consortium for Managing GTS | 45 |
| Date of issue | February 27, 2010 |
|---|
If you are interested to obtain please contact » Olga Novokhatskaya
Other issues:
- State System of Administrating the Oil and Gas Sector
- Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
- Anti-Crisis Policy in the Oil and Gas Sector And Its Consequences
- Western and Eastern Vectors of the Russian Oil and Gas Sector Development
- “Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2009 and Outlooks for 2010
- Gazprom: Plans, Risks, Prospects
- Emergence of a Putin-sponsored Oil and Gas Aristocracy: Clans at War for Property
- Offshore Wars and Distribution of New Oil and Gas Blocks
- Russian gas export routes: pipes and gas carriers
- State oil and gas sector management system: first year in new format
- New Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas Industry
- Central Asia and the Caspian Sea: a Trap or Salvation?
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009
- Domestic Market of Energy Resources: Current State and Future Prospects
- Global Market of Energy Resources: Main Development Trends and the Role of Russian Companies
- Nationalisation and Privatisation: Two Industry Development Tendencies
- War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia
- New Configuration of Political Power and the Oil and Gas Industry Management System
- Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?
- Statutory Framework of the Oil and Gas Industry
- Government regulation of the oil and gas industry in 2007 and future considerations for 2008
- The Merger of Gazprom and RAO UES and the New Gas and Electricity Pricing Patterns
- Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors
- The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project
- The Big Trade: Russian Companies Competing for Downstream Projects and Foreign Companies Seeking to Enter Upstream Projects
- Gazprom: are there Limits to the Growth?
- Pipeline Wars and New Routes of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia
- Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies
Special report:
Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:
State System of Administrating the Oil and Gas Sector
Dmitry Medvedev has passed the equator of his first presidential term. Considering the past two years one can already make conclusions about the work of the state system regulating the oil and gas sector launched in 2008. Its designer is certainly Vladimir Putin, who remains the main figure in the Russian economy and politics despite all speculations by experts. Yet, the new mechanism has some serious differences from what we observed during the eight years of Putin’s tenure.Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
Scared by the concept of turning Russia (the main gas supplier) into an energy superpower Europe declared the course aimed at diversifying supplies at any cost. Meanwhile, both players have missed sharp strengthening of China’s positions in Central Asia, which makes this geopolitical solitaire even more confusing and intriguing.Anti-Crisis Policy in the Oil and Gas Sector And Its Consequences
Vladimir Putin is facing a necessity to decide on the role the oil and gas industry should play. The selection of anti-crisis measures in the sector depends on that. Different roles Vladimir Putin plays result in some chaos in managing the sector. In particular, on one side, he deals quite willingly with Gazprom’s development. But on the other side, the company is interested in raising domestic gas prices by ensuring equal profitability of exports and supplies to the domestic market. However, this will be a serious blow to the Russian industry Putin is responsible for being the prime minister.Western and Eastern Vectors of the Russian Oil and Gas Sector Development
The country’s official energy strategy stipulates deliveries of Russian hydrocarbons to new markets, first of in Asia. On one side, this looks logical since Asian countries are becoming major driving forces of the demand for raw energy resources.On the other side, the Russian energy strategy proceeds from a rather doubtful supposition that the domestic oil and gas production will surge, which will allegedly enable Russia both to retain the European market and gain a place in the Asian sun.“Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
We have entered the year 2010 without “gas war” with Ukraine. Nevertheless the long-lasting systemic and personal political crisis in Ukraine is one of the major risk factors for Russian gas deliveries to Europe. No wonder that the major suspension in Gazprom’s supplies happened on this route. But the Ukrainian market and its gas transportation system are potentially interesting objects both for corporations and mediatory organizations to manage and generate profits.
About us | Products | Comments | Services | Books | Conferences | Our clients | Price list | Site map | Contacts
Consulting services, political risks assessment on the Fuel & Energy Industry, concern of pilitical and economic Elite within the Oil-and-Gas sector.National Energy Security Fund © 2007