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Arctic Projects during Energy Pivot to East

Arctic Projects during Energy Pivot to East

The 24 February 2022 events have, on the one hand, radically rewritten the economic agenda and, on the other, revealed the actual status of projects that have been said to be actively developing for many years now.

While before the heavy sanctions one could turn a blind eye to the implementation rates of the plans that were constantly voiced by high-ranking officials, now the fate of the Russian economy depends on their status without any exaggeration. One of them is the Arctic.

The closing European markets have dramatically increased the need for delivery routes to Asia.

Everyone has recalled that many years ago promises were made already to turn the Northern Sea Route into a fully functional transport artery. One that will make it possible, among other things, to remove oil and LNG from Arctic fields.

The need for export to the east via the NSR is obvious. But the trouble is that there are difficulties rather than breakthroughs poised to happen. Besides, production projects in the Arctic that have for a long time been viewed as a new centre of oil and gas production need to be audited too.

The new report covers the following subjects:

Staff changes in the system of government administration of the Arctic

Upgrade of strategic documents on Arctic development

Including the new Northern Sea Route Development Plan to 2035
Mere formalities still or change of approach?

Analysis of the actual status of the NSR

Including development of the icebreaker and tanker fleets as well as port and other infrastructure
Can the logistics really be reorganised towards the east?
New system of government administration of the NSR

Corporate projects to develop production and export of hydrocarbons in the Arctic

Intensification of fight between lobbyists for allocated resources

Situation with LNG production in and export from the Arctic

Influence of technological sanctions and problems with gas tankers

Medium-term outlook for Arctic and NSR development

Contents of the report:

INTRODUCTION	3
CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATION OF THE ARCTIC	5
NORTHERN SEA ROUTE AS SPECIAL HOPE AGAINST SANCTIONS	13
MAIN CORPORATE ARCTIC OIL AND GAS PROJECTS	28
Gazprom Neft’s Oil Projects	29
LNG Projects	31
Vostok Oil	40
FUTURE OUTLOOK	44

Date of release:	December 20, 2022

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:

Special report:

Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide

There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.

Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities

The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.

Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality

World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.

Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry

European sanctions and Brussels’ policy of abandoning Russian energy resources plus the destroyed Baltic gas pipelines have shut in Russia a respectable volume of pipeline gas that cannot promptly be sent to alternative markets. This would seem a strong argument in favour of developing LNG production in Russia. The new NESF report must give the answer to the question about what part of the plans for dramatic increase in LNG production in Russia can be considered realistic.

Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?

Global politics are the framework for energy relations. However, energy projects are developed and deals are made immediately at the corporate level. It is companies that form the threads that tie nations in the energy business. It is therefore important to analyse relations between Russian and Western corporations. As long as companies from the “collective West” stay in Russia, there are still options for continuing co-operation. The latter still brings Russia fiscal revenue and markets.

Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West

After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.

Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023

The year 2022 was very tough for the Russian oil and gas industry. After February 24, the industry was subjected to the most severe sanctions. However, their influence was quite different. Nevertheless, the industry is entering the year 2023 with anxiety. The EU intends to continue to reduce purchases of Russian gas, which will inevitably affect Russian revenues. The launch of new LNG plants is in question due to technological sanctions. Another question is about the green agenda. Thus, it is a big question whether it is reasonable to keep insisting on accelerated energy transition in Russia.

Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe

Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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