State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2010, Outlooks for 2011

The oil and gas industry seems to be at standstill waiting for serious novelties prepared by the government: changes in the taxation sphere are actively discussed, variants of privatization of state assets in the oil and gas sector are considered and there are speculations about possible revision of licensing, conditions of offshore work and even return to the PSA procedures.

At the same time, there is no distinct plan – on the contrary, the situation constantly changes. The matter is that several processes overlap each other. There is expectation of soon beginning of decline in production and approaching of a new election cycle, which does not allow Vladimir Putin to define the role of the oil and gas sector. The prime minister does not know whether the industry should be given a tax break in the situation when before the elections it is necessary to raise social expenses. The premier does not understand whether oil and gas companies should be allowed to earn more on the domestic fuel market or to recognize growth in prices socially and economically dangerous.

An additional factor is growing competition of main administrative and political clans in Russia on the eve of elections. Clans fight against each other for new transportation routes, control over exports and schemes of selling state property.

The report elaborates on the following topics:

• Preliminary production results of the year

  • Formally optimistic parameters do not mean wellbeing
  • Major hindrances in the Russian upstream and downstream segments

• Pipeline wars

  • Choosing export routes of Russian hydrocarbons is one of the most dramatic topics in struggle between Russian administrative and political groups
  • Creation of the system of transferring hydrocarbons from the west to the east
  • The new law “On Oil” as an instrument of administrative control over exports
  • Shortage of money on pipelines amid demands of major clans for new construction

• Situation on the domestic fuel market

  • Why was transfer to the principle of equal profitability on the domestic gas market postponed?
  • The election campaign and its influence on prices of gas and oil products
  • War between the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service and oil producers and the reasons of its failure
  • The test of the system “low taxes on gas firms and low domestic prices; high taxes on oil firms and high domestic prices on oil products”

• Struggle around taxation of the oil and gas industry

  • Collision of the pre-election and production logic
  • The situation around export duties on oil products
  • How to encourage processing and simultaneously solve the “Belarusian puzzle”
  • Switching from the general fiscal policy to a dedicated one – emergence of too many projects with special fiscal rules

• Property redistribution

  • Public beginning of the phase of the big Putin privatization
  • Preparing for sale of large assets
  • Simultaneous continuation of quiet privatization – transfer of licenses from the undistributed subsoil reserve to state and private companies
  • Political results of the Trebs and Titov tender

• Medium-term forecast of developments during the period of election turbulence

The contents of the report: