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Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender

Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender

Contradictions between major players on the Russian gas market keep accumulating. Depressed demand on the market and increased supply by independent producers restrict gas output of Gazprom and sharpen competition for financially reliable consumers creating the ground for new intrigues around configuration of the sector.

The situation on foreign markets is positive. Russian gas exports to the European Union keep growing. The increased demand for gas imports, concerns about reliability of transit via Ukraine, and mutual tiredness of sanction policies form the background for settlement of gas disputes and for development of constructive cooperation on new projects.

The Asian direction is not left unattended. Decline in revenues from domestic supplies, due to redistribution of the profit margin and departure of premium clients to independent producers, and from exports over low prices of hydrocarbons create problems for Gazprom’s financial standing. Growth in the tax burden on Gazprom contributes to these problems. Nevertheless, a comfortable level of debts and access to Western and Asian markets of capital, coupled with optimization of expenses on gas purchases and investments, enable Gazprom to hold its ground even in current conditions.

This report by the NESF analyzes the current standing of Gazprom.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Gazprom is surrounded by independent producers: the situation on the domestic gas market

    • The situation regarding supply and pricing
    • Development of exchange trade
    • New proposals by independent producers on gas sector restructuring, Gazprom’s counterattack
  • Gazprom on foreign markets

    • New leap into Europe: How long will it last?
    • The problem of transit via Ukraine, the fate of new pipeline projects
    • The Turkish saga
  • Financial and economic standing of Gazprom

    • Taxation of Gazprom
    • Dynamics of revenues and expenses
    • Investment policies
    • Debt burden
  • The medium-term forecast of developments

    • What will happen to restructuring on the domestic market?
    • What awaits Gazprom on foreign markets?

Contents of the report:

1.1. Demand, pricing 4
1.2. Production circuit 8
1.3. New round of struggle for sector restructuring 14
1.4. Gas trade on exchange: interim results, prospects 19
2.1. Gas supplies to EU-28 22
2.2. Gazprom and Turkey 28
2.3. Ukraine, new pipeline projects 31
3.1. Revenue and expenditure 42
3.2. Taxation of Gazprom 45
3.3. Investments. 47
3.4. Debt burden/td> 50
Chapter 4. FORECAST. 54
4.1. Domestic market 54
4.2. Exports 56
Date of release: January 18, 2017

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019
Gazprom on Path to New Reality
Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
The subject of taxation became the absolute hit of 2018. The government once again decided to rewrite the rules of the game. President Putin’s new inauguration decree served as the main pretext. It turned out that about 8 trillion roubles extra was necessary for the new national projects announced. The Cabinet did not take long to decide where the funds should be taken. The result was acceleration of the so-called tax manoeuvre started as far back as 1 January 2015. It suggested shifting the tax burden to the wellhead: the effect on the state budget of gradual abandonment of the export duty will be more than compensated for by quicker growth in mineral resources extraction tax (MRET). The laws on tax reform have already gone through the parliament and will take effect as of next year. This means nothing good for companies.
Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector
New government structure and FES: Reformatting the state system administrating the sector

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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