
Despite problems related to signing contracts on purchasing gas from the Caspian region countries, the European Commission is fully determined to implement Southern Corridor projects to reduce dependence on Russia. In its turn, Moscow keeps steadily promoting its alternative South Stream project. But the price of the question puts both sides into a difficult position.
Azerbaijan is playing its own game twisting arms of the Europeans by threatening to sell gas either to Russia or to implement its own small projects on pumping gas to certain countries. The situation in Central Asia is also sharpening with China having strengthened its positions and ready to impede any attempt to transport Turkmen gas to the West.
A new report of the National Energy Security Fund analyzes progress of development of a resource base, problems of infrastructure and commercial relations as well as geopolitical aspects of the Caspian gas project development.
The report elaborates on the following issues:
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The condition of upstream business in major countries in the region
- The real level of production in each country in the medium-term perspective
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Old and new infrastructure to deliver hydrocarbons from Central Asia to Russia, the EU, China and Iran
- Successful and failed projects
- Costs of the most promising routes
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Marketing of Central Asian gas
- Evolution of Russia’s strategy
- Changes in pricing formulae
- Reasons for low prices for China
- Dilemma of countries in this region: money or direct access to markets?
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Main risks:
- resource, political, transit and commercial
- Problems of underground gas storages and reliability of supplies
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The situation concerning production and transportation of oil from the Caspian region: current state and prospects
- Production capacities of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan
- Russia’s participation in oil logistics
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Medium-term forecast of developments
The contents of the report::
Introduction | 3 |
Chapter 1. Gas Production Resource Base in the Caspian Region, Production Growth Potential | 4 |
1.1. Azerbaijan | 4 |
1.2. Turkmenistan | 6 |
1.3. Uzbekistan | 8 |
1.4. Kazakhstan | 10 |
1.5. Russian sector of the Caspian Sea | 11 |
1.6. Iran | 12 |
1.7. Iraq | 13 |
Chapter 2. Existing Infrastructure of Gas Supplies, Current Contracts | 14 |
2.1. Central Asia-Center Gas Pipeline System | 14 |
2.2. Russian-Kazakhstani Gas Relations | 18 |
2.3. New Gas Axis – Central Asia-China | 19 |
2.4. Gas Pipelines from Turkmenistan to Iran and from Iran to Turkey | 20 |
2.5. Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Gas Pipeline, Supplies of Azerbaijani Gas to Russia | 22 |
Chapter 3. New Projects, Development Prospects of Sales Markets | 24 |
3.1. Southern Corridor | 25 |
3.2. Trans-Caspian Route | 29 |
3.3 East-West Gas Pipeline | 31 |
3.4. South Stream | 33 |
3.5. White Stream | 36 |
3.6. Islamic pipelines | 37 |
Chapter 4. Caspian risks | 39 |
4.1. Geopolitical Combat: Positions of Main Players | 39 |
4.2. Resource and Political Risks | 43 |
4.3. Turkish Factor | 44 |
4.4. Commercial Risks and Expansion of Azerbaijan | 45 |
Chapter 5. Caspian oil junction | 47 |
5.1. Oil Sector of Azerbaijan | 47 |
5.2. Oil Sector of Kazakhstan | 49 |
Chapter 6. Forecast: Who Will Win | 61 |
6.1. Demand for Gas after Fukushima | 61 |
6.2. Prospects of Growth in Production and Export Capacities of Caspian States (Except Russia and Iran) | 62 |
6.3. Prospects of Southern Corridor and South Stream | 63 |
Date of issue: | September 19th, 2011 |