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State companies vs. private firms: two projects for the sector

State companies vs. private firms: two projects for the sector

The attack on Bashneft again puts the issue of the main direction of the oil sector development on the agenda. Although Rosneft strongly refutes its involvement in the Bashneft case, there are concerns about formation of the “oil industry ministry”.

However, Russian elites should not be perceived as overall adherents of nationalization. In reality, nationalization is not a goal but an instrument. It is used to take away assets from competitors.

However, nationalization would not turn functionaries and top managers of state companies into legal owners and co-owners of assets they manage. This is why nationalization is not the only variant of the sector’s development. No wonder, there are active debates about privatization of Rosneft on the background of expansion policies of the company.

One thing is obvious – the question of property rights is a key one for Russia. It is indicative that re-division of assets is continuing even amid sanctions imposed on Russia when elites seem to be in need of consolidation.

Key topics of the report:

  • Attackers and defenders

    • Who is the main driver of property redistribution? Who is defending its assets?
  • Rosneft’s policy in the sphere of control over assets

    • Stages of expansion of the company; its extensive strategy of development
    • The fate of TNK-BP and Itera
    • The role of Independent Oil and Gas Company (NNK)
    • The fate of Summa
  • Prospects of privatization of state assets

    • Debates about privatization of Rosneft: positions of the management and the government
    • The future of Gazprom Neft
  • Strengthening of the state role in related assets

    • Plans of establishment of a state corporation for geological prospecting and a national servicing company
    • Sanctions as stimuli of the nationalization policy
  • The forecast of medium-term developments

    • The fate of Bashneft, its influence on the sector’s future
    • Possible M&A, prospects of moving from property acquisition to privatization of assets

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Nationalization as instrument for re-dividing assets 5
Chapter 2. Privatization – the other side of nationalization: who benefits? 13
Chapter 3. Intensified re-division of oil and gas market: strategies of attackers and defenders in the oil sector 24
Chapter 4. Privatization in the time of trouble: reliance on state, search for new allies 33
Forecast of developments 42
Date of release: December 23, 2014

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Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
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Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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