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State companies vs. private firms: two projects for the sector

State companies vs. private firms: two projects for the sector

The attack on Bashneft again puts the issue of the main direction of the oil sector development on the agenda. Although Rosneft strongly refutes its involvement in the Bashneft case, there are concerns about formation of the “oil industry ministry”.

However, Russian elites should not be perceived as overall adherents of nationalization. In reality, nationalization is not a goal but an instrument. It is used to take away assets from competitors.

However, nationalization would not turn functionaries and top managers of state companies into legal owners and co-owners of assets they manage. This is why nationalization is not the only variant of the sector’s development. No wonder, there are active debates about privatization of Rosneft on the background of expansion policies of the company.

One thing is obvious – the question of property rights is a key one for Russia. It is indicative that re-division of assets is continuing even amid sanctions imposed on Russia when elites seem to be in need of consolidation.

Key topics of the report:

  • Attackers and defenders

    • Who is the main driver of property redistribution? Who is defending its assets?
  • Rosneft’s policy in the sphere of control over assets

    • Stages of expansion of the company; its extensive strategy of development
    • The fate of TNK-BP and Itera
    • The role of Independent Oil and Gas Company (NNK)
    • The fate of Summa
  • Prospects of privatization of state assets

    • Debates about privatization of Rosneft: positions of the management and the government
    • The future of Gazprom Neft
  • Strengthening of the state role in related assets

    • Plans of establishment of a state corporation for geological prospecting and a national servicing company
    • Sanctions as stimuli of the nationalization policy
  • The forecast of medium-term developments

    • The fate of Bashneft, its influence on the sector’s future
    • Possible M&A, prospects of moving from property acquisition to privatization of assets

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Nationalization as instrument for re-dividing assets 5
Chapter 2. Privatization – the other side of nationalization: who benefits? 13
Chapter 3. Intensified re-division of oil and gas market: strategies of attackers and defenders in the oil sector 24
Chapter 4. Privatization in the time of trouble: reliance on state, search for new allies 33
Forecast of developments 42
Date of release: December 23, 2014

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued
Arctic: Soviet-type Gigantomania or Breakthrough Project?
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019
Gazprom on Path to New Reality
Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
The subject of taxation became the absolute hit of 2018. The government once again decided to rewrite the rules of the game. President Putin’s new inauguration decree served as the main pretext. It turned out that about 8 trillion roubles extra was necessary for the new national projects announced. The Cabinet did not take long to decide where the funds should be taken. The result was acceleration of the so-called tax manoeuvre started as far back as 1 January 2015. It suggested shifting the tax burden to the wellhead: the effect on the state budget of gradual abandonment of the export duty will be more than compensated for by quicker growth in mineral resources extraction tax (MRET). The laws on tax reform have already gone through the parliament and will take effect as of next year. This means nothing good for companies.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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