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Old and new routes of Russian gas to Europe: Belarusian scenario for Ukraine

Old and new routes of Russian gas to Europe: Belarusian scenario for Ukraine

The dénouement of the gas transit play on the post-Soviet area in nearing.

Gazprom’s policy on bringing gas prices for former Soviet republics to the European level and implementation of projects on bypassing traditional transit states for Russian natural gas made Belarus agree to give away its pipeline system to Gazprom. Ukraine is about to make the same decision.

However, political cycles in Russia and Ukraine currently impose certain restrictions on the sides.

This is especially noticeable in the behavior of Ukrainian ruling elites that vitally need a confident win at the parliamentary elections after Yulia Timoshenko’s imprisonment. The Party of Regions will be trying to ensure it at any cost. Meanwhile, the topic of the gas transportation system is still overly politicized in Ukraine.

A new report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Current condition of exports and transit of Russian natural gas to Europe

    • The current and future amount of transit
    • Existing contracts and variants of their prolongation
    • The future level of demand for Russian gas in Europe

  • Gazprom seizes the “Belarusian fortress”

    • Analyzing the technology of success: how Gazprom was pursuing its objective
    • Analysis of new contracts with Belarus and Russian gas prospects on the Belarusian market

  • Ukrainian transit and Ukrainian gas market

    • Importance of the Ukrainian route of supplies and the standing of the Ukrainian domestic gas market
    • Contract system and Kharkov agreements
    • The current condition of the Ukrainian GTS

  • Ukrainian GTS is in the grip

    • Arguments of Russia and counterarguments of Ukraine
    • Kiev’s attempts to attract Brussels to the dialogue
    • Dilemma: joint venture or gas transportation consortium

  • Risks and possibilities of Russian policies on organizing gas transit

    • Is the Belarusian gas scenario feasible for Ukraine?

 

The contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Exports and transit of natural gas from Russia to Europe 4
  1.1. Volume of gas exports 4
  1.2. Outside Former Soviet States: Between Prices Linked To Oil And Take-Or-Pay Principle 5
  1.3 Supplies to CIS and Baltic states 8
  1.4. Existing routes of gas deliveries from Russia to Europe 10
Chapter 2. Settling Belarusian case 13
  2.1. Beltransgaz and construction of Yamal-Europe gas pipeline 13
  2.2. Contract for 2007 to 2011 17
  2.3. Transit conflict in 2010 19
  2.4. Seizure of Beltransgaz, New System of Relations 20
  2.5. Gas supplies and transit through Belarus in 2012 to 2014 21
Chapter 3. Ukrainian transit and gas market 23
  3.1. Major market 23
  3.2. Transit monopoly 27
  3.3. Contract system and its consequences 32
Chapter 4. Gas grips for Yanukovich 35
  4.1. North European gas pipeline 35
  4.2. South Stream 39
  4.3. Single Economic Space and joint enterprises 41
  4.4 Behavior of Ukrainian authorities 44
Chapter 5. Forecast. Is Belarusian gas scenario possible for Ukraine 49
  5.1. Contradictions Inside Ukrainian Authorities, Political Struggle 49
  5.2. Russia Increases Pressure: Reasons And Consequences 50
  5.3. Value of Ukraine’s GTS 52
Date of issue: March 13, 2012

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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