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Different approaches towards Russian oil industry: search for strategic development vector

Different approaches towards Russian oil industry: search for strategic development vector

The latest official forecasts of the oil sector development have rather gloomy outlooks.

Even in its best scenario the economic development ministry predicts production to grow by less than 3% by 2030. The content of the 2035 Energy Strategy does not differ much. Meanwhile, according to the pessimistic forecast of the economic development ministry, production may fall by 14%.

The main question is how to avoid it when production in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area that is a traditional oil province has negative dynamic.

It is necessary to find a substitute for production at traditional Western Siberian deposits in the medium-term perspective. Otherwise the sector and the Russian budget in general will face problems.

Russia has to choose between three options: offshore deposits in the Arctic, Eastern Siberia and non-conventional oil in Western Siberia. Lobbyists of these directions draw excellent prospects. The question is how wonderful these ideas are in reality and whether these options are really good.

However, it is impossible to have strong standing in all these spheres simultaneously. Thus, the state has to make its choice. Especially given that these projects can be implemented only within the framework of special taxation procedures that result in decline in state budget revenues. This is the reason why the state is very cautious about such plans.

The new report tries to figure out what variant is the most alluring.

Key topics of the report:

  • Evolution of official forecasts of the oil industry development

    • Viewpoints of Vladimir Putin, economic development ministry and energy ministry on the sector’s future
    • The latest variant of the oil industry’s future in the Energy Strategy

  • Eastern Siberia

    • Is it possible to go beyond Vankor project?
    • Analysis of the region’s resource base, reasons for serious lag in the pace of development of this oil and gas province

  • Offshore deposits

    • Rare success amid loud debates
    • Absence of clear strategy of offshore development
    • Economy of new offshore projects

  • New projects in Western Siberia

    • Analysis of pros and cons
    • Hard-to-recover deposits with ready infrastructure on their transportation to markets
    • Prospects of Bazhenov and Abalak formations and other hard-to-recover deposits in the region
    • Who will bring technologies? Prospects of cooperation with nonresidents

  • New foreign policy context, state choice

    • How do three projects blend with a new political conjuncture
    • Cooling of relations with the West and attempts to accelerate reorientation of exports towards the East?

  • Taxation preferences

    • Who will get state concessions?
    • Discussion of taxation procedures for offshore, Eastern Siberian projects and hard-to-recover deposits in Western Siberia

  • Medium-term forecast of developments

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Search for new ways of development. Official forecast of the oil industry’s future 4
Chapter 2. Eastern Siberia – region of one project? 14
Chapter 3. Offshore production development 24
Chapter 4. Tight reserves – panacea or another trick? 37
Chapter 5. Russia’s strategy on world oil and gas market 46
Medium-term forecast of developments 52
Date of release: May 30, 2014

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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