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Russia on the LNG market: is there response to old and new competitors?

Russia on the LNG market: is there response to old and new competitors?

After several decades of practically uninterrupted growth the world LNG market has been stagnating for the second year in a row.

The global financial crisis that occurred five years ago led to difficulties with adoption of final investment decisions on many projects in the sphere of production and exports of liquefied natural gas; difficulties with financing and designing emerged even at the construction stage.

The crisis was coupled with the USA giving up the role of major LNG consumer, the role that Washington was intensively preparing for in the mid 2000s. This happened as a result of growth in production of its domestic shale gas and from other untraditional sources.

On the world LNG market this led to intensified flows of liquefied natural gas between major but separate regional markets – North America, Europe and Asia. However, the gas business is waiting for a new wave of the LNG boom. Experts forecast the market to be supplied by LNG produced in Australia, North America and southeastern Africa. Qatar that has already caused many problems to us, in 2014 is to make a decision on the future of its gas projects.

The infrastructure of LNG imports keeps developing at a high pace creating premises for formation of a more flexible market, development of the arbitrage system and turning LNG into a world mechanism of balancing the demand for gas in different parts of the planet.

Competition on foreign markets overlaps with domestic competition. Russia has been lagging somewhat behind in developing its LNG projects, and now it is trying to catch up. The question is whether the struggle of Russian projects against each other will strengthen our positions on the LNG market.

Key topics of the report:

  • Structure of production and consumption on the LNG market

    • Balance of the demand and supply
    • Temporary deficit on the market

  • Main tendencies in trade and pricing

    • Flows between the basins
    • Spot development
    • Bottlenecks in LNG business

  • New projects of liquefied natural gas production

    • The main thing is to separate real future capacities from speculative and fancy ones
    • Analysis of the future of Australian projects, export potential of North American shale gas, LNG projects in eastern Africa, on the Levant coast, LNG potential of Iran and South America, Qatari reserves

  • Condition and prospects of Russian projects in the LNG sphere

    • What will be the results of partial liberalization of exports?
    • The present and the future of Gazprom projects, Yamal LNG and Yamal LNG-2, Far Eastern LNG and other plans of Rosneft

  • Functioning of LNG market in corporate dimension

    • Vertical chains in LNG trade

  • Medium-term forecast of the industry development, assessment of Russian LNG competitiveness

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. World LNG market 4
1.1. Production of liquefied natural gas in 2013: deep freezing 4
1.2. LNG importers in 2013: Japanese drive picked up by neighbors 6
1.3. Contract system, LNG prices 9
1.4. Dynamic of demand for LNG, flows of LNG between basins 13
Chapter 2. New LNG production projects 16
2.1. Australian wave 16
2.2. LNG from North America 22
2.3. Eastern Africa 35
2.4. Other projects under construction and planned projects 37
Chapter 3. Russian LNG. Is there progress? 39
3.1. Far East 40
3.2. Projects in the Arctic basin 49
Chapter 4. Prospects of LNG demand-supply balance 56
Date of release: March 24, 2014

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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