Русская версия

( Translate with Google )

Main page > Products > The fuel and energy complex of Russia - Series of analytical reports > The shale oil revolution in the USA, its influence on the industry

The shale oil revolution in the USA, its influence on the industry

The shale oil revolution in the USA, its influence on the industry

The shale revolution in the USA is the most topical issue in the world oil market. The balance of demand and supply and, correspondingly, oil prices and other things depend on it.

The shale gas revolution some time ago stirred the world energy market and led to serious changes in the gas market. Natural gas forecasts had to be seriously revised predicting the emergence of the USA as a major natural gas importer. This time we have to analyze consequences of the second shale revolution – an oil one.

The US progress in production of unconventional oil is obvious. However, it is assessed very differently.

There is a stable group of super optimists who state that the industry has entered a new epoch; they claim that shale oil production costs are decreasing at a fantastic pace and prices of $30 to $40 per bbl do not undermine American projects.

They try to attribute a sharp drop in drilling activities in the USA to a technical progress – there is allegedly no necessity in extensive drilling. They believe that a production slump in the USA this summer and autumn is a temporary phenomenon.

Representatives of companies engaged in conventional projects are confident that the above data is false. They form the camp of shale alarmists. For instance, at the end of October 2015 Rosneft head Igor Sechin declared that US shale companies had accumulated $150bn in debts, while tight oil production in the world was profitable only at prices of $85 to $98 per bbl.

So, who is right? How will the second shale revolution in North America influence the Russian oil sector? A new report by the National Energy Security Fund answers these questions.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

Notion of shale and unconventional oil
World reserves of unconventional oil: what is the scope of imagination?
Main deposits of unconventional oil in the USA
- Reserves
- Production capacity
- Evolution of deposit development
Economy of American shale projects
- Assessment of production costs
- Debts
- Influence of low world prices
Main players in the North American market
Technological factor
- The real development of unconventional oil production technologies
Forecast of shale oil production in the medium-term perspective

Contents of the report:

GENERAL PROVISIONS, CLASSIFICATION AND METHODOLOGY	3
PRODUCTION OF SHALE OIL AND LIQUID HYDROCARBONS (LH): MAIN TENDENCIES	7
SHALE OIL PRODUCTION IN THE USA	13
SHALE OIL PRODUCTION IN CANADA	20
WORLD SHALE POTENTIAL	24
PETROLEUM PRODUCERS IN THE USA: INDEPENDENT PLAYERS ON THE MARKET	32
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTOR	38
FORECAST OF SHALE OIL AND LH PRODUCTION UNTIL 2040	43
CONVERSION TABLE	49

Date of release:	December 4, 2015

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:

Special report:

Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide

There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.

Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities

The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.

Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality

World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.

Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry

European sanctions and Brussels’ policy of abandoning Russian energy resources plus the destroyed Baltic gas pipelines have shut in Russia a respectable volume of pipeline gas that cannot promptly be sent to alternative markets. This would seem a strong argument in favour of developing LNG production in Russia. The new NESF report must give the answer to the question about what part of the plans for dramatic increase in LNG production in Russia can be considered realistic.

Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?

Global politics are the framework for energy relations. However, energy projects are developed and deals are made immediately at the corporate level. It is companies that form the threads that tie nations in the energy business. It is therefore important to analyse relations between Russian and Western corporations. As long as companies from the “collective West” stay in Russia, there are still options for continuing co-operation. The latter still brings Russia fiscal revenue and markets.

Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West

After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.

Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023

The year 2022 was very tough for the Russian oil and gas industry. After February 24, the industry was subjected to the most severe sanctions. However, their influence was quite different. Nevertheless, the industry is entering the year 2023 with anxiety. The EU intends to continue to reduce purchases of Russian gas, which will inevitably affect Russian revenues. The launch of new LNG plants is in question due to technological sanctions. Another question is about the green agenda. Thus, it is a big question whether it is reasonable to keep insisting on accelerated energy transition in Russia.

Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe

Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

Rambler's Top100

About us | Products | Comments | Services | Books | Conferences | Our clients | Price list | Site map | Contacts

Consulting services, political risks assessment on the Fuel & Energy Industry, concern of pilitical and economic Elite within the Oil-and-Gas sector.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007