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Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued

Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued

Almost five years ago Western countries imposed sanctions on the Russian oil and gas industry.

Its performance indicators seem to give evidence that the companies have adapted to the restrictive measures. But the sanctions were not expected to produce an instant effect.

The prohibitive measures may show their negative effect somewhat later. Then the restrictions on access to investment, technology, and markets may come to be felt.

The new report deals extensively with the following issues

Innovations in the sanctions legislation: new sanctions measures and announced plans
- The US and EU in search of weak spots of the Russian oil and gas industry
Financial situation in Russian oil and gas corporations
- Limiting access to loans is one of the most distressing measures.
- How do companies survive? Situation with debts and investment. Have the hopes for the Chinese come true? Dynamics of Chinese loans and investment in Russian oil and gas.
- Situation with debts and investment
- Have the hopes for the Chinese come true?
- Dynamics of Chinese loans and investment in Russian oil and gas
Export of Russian pipeline gas in the sanctions confrontation zone
- Almost every week various options of sanctions against Nord Stream 2 and other new Russian gas pipelines are discussed in the US
- How really dangerous are they?
LNG at gunpoint?
- Liquefied gas production did not feature in the list of possible objects for restrictions earlier. However, the American legislators in 2019 for the first time remembered this part of the gas business. How serious are these plans and can LNG production rapidly developing in Russia suffer an actual technological blow?
A medium-term forecast of developments

Contents of the report:

Introduction	3
Chapter 1. What does next year have in store? Russia awaiting new sanctions	5
Chapter 2. Access to foreign investment: Is the devil really so black as he is painted?	18
Chapter 3. Russian LNG production and sanctions: new risks?	30
Chapter 4. Russian gas export in the sanctions confrontation zone	38
Medium-term forecast	45

Date of release:	May 31, 2019

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:

Special report:

Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide

There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.

Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities

The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.

Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality

World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.

Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry

European sanctions and Brussels’ policy of abandoning Russian energy resources plus the destroyed Baltic gas pipelines have shut in Russia a respectable volume of pipeline gas that cannot promptly be sent to alternative markets. This would seem a strong argument in favour of developing LNG production in Russia. The new NESF report must give the answer to the question about what part of the plans for dramatic increase in LNG production in Russia can be considered realistic.

Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?

Global politics are the framework for energy relations. However, energy projects are developed and deals are made immediately at the corporate level. It is companies that form the threads that tie nations in the energy business. It is therefore important to analyse relations between Russian and Western corporations. As long as companies from the “collective West” stay in Russia, there are still options for continuing co-operation. The latter still brings Russia fiscal revenue and markets.

Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West

After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.

Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023

The year 2022 was very tough for the Russian oil and gas industry. After February 24, the industry was subjected to the most severe sanctions. However, their influence was quite different. Nevertheless, the industry is entering the year 2023 with anxiety. The EU intends to continue to reduce purchases of Russian gas, which will inevitably affect Russian revenues. The launch of new LNG plants is in question due to technological sanctions. Another question is about the green agenda. Thus, it is a big question whether it is reasonable to keep insisting on accelerated energy transition in Russia.

Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe

Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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