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Vladimir Putin’s Energy Strategy

Vladimir Putin’s Energy Strategy

A new system of managing the oil and gas sector has been formed in general. It shows what staff conflicts we may witness in the near future.

However, it is also important to understand what the sector should expect. The oil and gas industry faces a series of crucial problems whose settlement is impossible to ignore further.

Putin obviously retained control over the oil and gas sector in 2008 to 2012. Yet, his return to the presidential chair may mean certain adjustment of the economic course.

Cancelation of the inertial policy in the oil and gas sector should be anticipated; otherwise it can lead to serious decline in production in the medium-term perspective.

The report elaborates on the following issues: :

  • The role of the oil and gas sector in the Russian economy

    • Putin’s comeback as president was accompanied by a great number of economic declarations. The oil and gas sector was much discussed in them – often these were opposite ideas. What should we believe: promises to continue the course of economic diversification or pledges to rehabilitate the oil and gas sector and stake on it as innovation sector?
  • Russia’s budget policy

    • To understand the future role of the oil and gas sector better it is necessary to analyze the draft budget for the next three years. It vividly demonstrates that the state is not ready to remove an “honorable duty” of the main state donor from the sector. The budget clearly shows what in reality Putin’s term “fiscal maneuver” means. Actually the sector should not expect serious taxation preferences. This concerns the gas industry actively attacked by the Cabinet and oil producers.
  • Struggle against stagnation of production amid new redistribution of property in the sector

    • State policy in the sphere of privatization and its possible influence on production parameters
  • Export policy of the state

    • Sharpening of the export question amid growth in the domestic demand and risks of production decline. The state encourages Russian companies to turn into global players, risks for the Russian upstream segment.
  • Forecast of developments

The contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Role of Oil and Gas Industry in Russian Economy 5
Chapter 2. Struggle Against Decline in Production Amid New Redistribution in FES 15
  2.1. Privatization – Clan War for Property Instead of Strategic Choice 16
  2.2. Agonizing Search for Growth Strategy 20
Chapter 3. Search for Export Strategy 36
Forecast of Developments 49
Date of issue: August 6, 2012

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Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

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