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The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project

The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project

President Vladimir Putin has pledged not to run for the third consecutive presidency. However, it is obvious that he will not disappear from the Russian politics and economics. What will Putin take up after he leaves the Kremlin? One of the possible scenarios is a job in the energy sector. This is an interesting, not too confusing and promising field. Oil and gas are the Russia’s main cards and possibly the Putin’s key to the global hydrocarbon market. Hence is the big significance of the Putin’s energy project.

It is possible that Putin intends to establish an energy platform for himself before he has to go and minimize the risk of getting kicked down after the next presidential election. Hiring former European politicians, Putin understands perfectly that the «life after presidency» will depend on the ability to control significant economic assets. How does he see the industry after his presidency expires? What will be his role in the oil and gas industry? The new research by the Energy Security Fund tries to give answers to these questions.

The research studies the possible scenarios of the industry development «after Putin»:

  • Establishment of an energy mega corporation for Putin to run

    • Possibilities of state companies Gazprom and Rosneft merger
    • Associated political risks
    • The possibility that the union will also take over Transneft, Sovkomflot, and Novoship
    • The fate of private oil companies
  • Mechanical scenario of the Fuel & Energy Industry development

    • Putin remains in politics, Gazprom and Rosneft continue bloating
    • The two corporations are running out of opportunities for growth and their interests may collide
  • Putin’s opportunities to become chief of a multinational energy business

    • Putin and the «Gas OPEC»
    • The possibility of an alliance between Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

The content of the report:

Introduction 2
Chapter 1. Impartial and Personal Goals of Putin in the Oil and Gas Industry 4
1.1. General Issues of the Industry 4
1.2. Putin’s Personal Goals in the Energy Business 20
Chapter 2. Basic Career Scenarios for Putin after March 2008 22
2.1. Build a «National Pride» 22
2.2. Head of the Gas Giant 26
2.3. Mechanical Scenario29
2.4. Transition to the Above-Nation Level 33
2.5. Highly Unrealistic Scenario - Leader of New Eurasian Oil and Gas Coalition 37
Conclusion 41
Date of publicationVolume
August 6, 200741 pages

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued
Arctic: Soviet-type Gigantomania or Breakthrough Project?
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019
Gazprom on Path to New Reality
Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
The subject of taxation became the absolute hit of 2018. The government once again decided to rewrite the rules of the game. President Putin’s new inauguration decree served as the main pretext. It turned out that about 8 trillion roubles extra was necessary for the new national projects announced. The Cabinet did not take long to decide where the funds should be taken. The result was acceleration of the so-called tax manoeuvre started as far back as 1 January 2015. It suggested shifting the tax burden to the wellhead: the effect on the state budget of gradual abandonment of the export duty will be more than compensated for by quicker growth in mineral resources extraction tax (MRET). The laws on tax reform have already gone through the parliament and will take effect as of next year. This means nothing good for companies.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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