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The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project

The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project

President Vladimir Putin has pledged not to run for the third consecutive presidency. However, it is obvious that he will not disappear from the Russian politics and economics. What will Putin take up after he leaves the Kremlin? One of the possible scenarios is a job in the energy sector. This is an interesting, not too confusing and promising field. Oil and gas are the Russia’s main cards and possibly the Putin’s key to the global hydrocarbon market. Hence is the big significance of the Putin’s energy project.

It is possible that Putin intends to establish an energy platform for himself before he has to go and minimize the risk of getting kicked down after the next presidential election. Hiring former European politicians, Putin understands perfectly that the «life after presidency» will depend on the ability to control significant economic assets. How does he see the industry after his presidency expires? What will be his role in the oil and gas industry? The new research by the Energy Security Fund tries to give answers to these questions.

The research studies the possible scenarios of the industry development «after Putin»:

  • Establishment of an energy mega corporation for Putin to run

    • Possibilities of state companies Gazprom and Rosneft merger
    • Associated political risks
    • The possibility that the union will also take over Transneft, Sovkomflot, and Novoship
    • The fate of private oil companies
  • Mechanical scenario of the Fuel & Energy Industry development

    • Putin remains in politics, Gazprom and Rosneft continue bloating
    • The two corporations are running out of opportunities for growth and their interests may collide
  • Putin’s opportunities to become chief of a multinational energy business

    • Putin and the «Gas OPEC»
    • The possibility of an alliance between Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

The content of the report:

Introduction 2
Chapter 1. Impartial and Personal Goals of Putin in the Oil and Gas Industry 4
1.1. General Issues of the Industry 4
1.2. Putin’s Personal Goals in the Energy Business 20
Chapter 2. Basic Career Scenarios for Putin after March 2008 22
2.1. Build a «National Pride» 22
2.2. Head of the Gas Giant 26
2.3. Mechanical Scenario29
2.4. Transition to the Above-Nation Level 33
2.5. Highly Unrealistic Scenario - Leader of New Eurasian Oil and Gas Coalition 37
Conclusion 41
Date of publicationVolume
August 6, 200741 pages

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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