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Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand

Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand

The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution.

The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier.

Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All these questions we will try to answer in our new report.

You will learn about the following subjects:

  • Last chance of compromise

    • Can a new gas agreement be concluded with Ukraine yet? /li>
    • What options there are to discuss.
    • A new long-term contract or living by European rules?
  • Life without Ukraine: Russia’s actual transit potential

    • Creating an alternative system for gas delivery to Europe across two seas.
    • The strengths and the weaknesses of the new transport system.
    • When will the Baltic and Black Sea transit capacity with the onshore infrastructure really start operating?
  • “Gas war” scenario

    • How does Gazprom intend to transport gas to Europe in winter 2020?
    • The main risks of the coming winter if the Ukrainian route is blocked.
    • The most vulnerable user countries.
    • The significance of underground storage and LNG.
  • Role of Ukraine in Russian gas transit

    • Fluctuations of transport volumes and transit geography.
    • The situation with the prices for transport.
    • The state of the Ukrainian gas transport system.
  • Situation in Ukraine

    • Ukraine’s need for imported gas.
    • The role and state of the underground storage facilities.
    • The search for alternatives to Russian supply, including LNG.
    • New prices.
  • Medium-term forecast for developments

    • The question is not only how this heating season will be passed, but what will happen next, especially if the forecasts come true about growth in the use of imported gas in the EU because of abandonment of coal and nuclear power and continuing decline in domestic production.

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Ukrainian Gas Industry Status 4
Ukraine’s Domestic Gas Production 4
Gas Use Structure in Ukraine. Naftogaz-fought ‘Price Wars’ 8
Gas import into Ukraine: Can LNG replace reverse flow supply? 12
Ukrainian USF 17
Ukraine and its role in Russian gas transit system 24
State of Ukrainian Gas Transport System. How Important Is Russian Transit? 24
Importance of Transit Payments for Ukrainian Economy.Benefits of ‘Entry-Exit’ Pricing 30
Ukraine as Part of System for Russian Gas Delivery to European Users 36
Alternatives to Ukrainian Route. Is Supply to EU Possible without Ukrainian Transit? 46
Key Conclusions 59
Date of release: December 30, 2019

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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