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Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: struggle continues

Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: struggle continues

Studying changes in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region has long been a priority for the NESF. The interest in this region is not declining. On the contrary, for the EU this is one of the few options of acquiring new suppliers of natural gas to European markets. However, the situation is not simple for the Europeans. 

The mandate of the European Commission granted back in 2011 to negotiate implementation of a project of building a trans-Caspian gas pipeline to deliver Turkmen natural gas to Europe bypassing Russia has not yielded any result.

Azerbaijan remains the only new promising supplier of natural gas from the Caspian Sea region to the EU.

The sharpening of relations between Russia and the West led to revival of the old idea of Iranian natural gas exports to Europe that have been blocked over the past decades by large-scale sanctions.

Meanwhile, China keeps gradually reinforcing its presence in Central Asia by developing gas production and transportation capacities to deliver natural gas to its market. Construction of a new line of a gas pipeline through Kyrgyzstan is on the agenda.

A new report examines processes in the sphere of resource base development in countries of the Caspian Sea region, infrastructure development and collision of geopolitical interests around natural gas projects.

Key topics of the report:

  • Gazprom in Central Asia

    • Decline in demand for Central Asian gas
    • Geopolitics and business
    • Russia’s involvement in production projects
    • Purchase of Kyrgyzgaz
  • China’s strengthening in the region

    • Resource assets of contracts with China
    • Expansion of the Central Asia-China main pipeline
    • Commercial conditions and technological problems of imports of Central Asian gas by the PRC
    • Competition of Russian gas against Central Asian gas on the Chinese market
  • Southern Gas Corridor: regrouping of forces

    • Shah Deniz and other projects in Azerbaijan
    • Gas contracts
    • TANAP and TAP: preparations for construction
  • Situation on gas markets in Southeastern Europe

    • Analysis of demand
    • Supplies infrastructure development in the region
  • The future of South Stream

  • Stake on Iran: is it worth?

    • Russia’s new old competitor in the region
  • Forecast of developments

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Gazprom in Central Asia 4
1.1. Purchases of Central Asian gas by Gazprom 4
1.2. Prospects of drop in purchases of Central Asian gas, activities of KazRosGas 9
1.3. Projects of Gazprom and other Russian companies in geological prospecting and natural gas production in Central Asia 13
Chapter 2. China gets reinforced in Central Asia. New gas pipeline to run via Kyrgyzstan 15
2.1. Gas supplies to China. Replacing Russia 15
2.2. Gas resources for supplies from Central Asia to China 18
2.3. Chinese gas market 23
2.4. Prospects of Russian gas in China 28
Chapter 3. Azerbaijan, Southern Gas Corridor. Regrouping of forces 32
3.1. Gas sector in Azerbaijan 32
3.2. Sale of Azeri gas: conditions, tendencies 36
3.3. Shah Deniz 2, Southern Gas Corridor 40
Chapter 4. Situation on gas markets in Southeastern Europe and Turkey 45
4.1. Gas markets in the southeast of the EU 48
4.2. Gas market in Turkey 52
4.3. South Stream: Austria comes back, Bulgaria hesitates 55
Chapter 5. Summary, forecasts 59
Date of release: October 28, 2014

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
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Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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