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Main page > Products > The fuel and energy complex of Russia - Series of analytical reports > Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
The year 2009 and the beginning of 2010 gave birth to optimistic expectations of the Europeans regarding the future of the EU gas market. The “epoch of buyers” is believed to have come to Europe. Gas prices indeed do not look as impressive as in 2008, the demand for gas has somewhat dropped, while competition on the market has increased first of all due to LNG supplies from Qatar. Moreover, Europe is anticipating gas supplies from Central Asia and Iran. The question is whether this period is a respite or the start of a long-term tendency.
Despite some decline in competitiveness of natural gas in Europe, in the long-term perspective the Europeans have no serious alternative. With the struggle for cutting emissions into the atmosphere, natural gas seems to be the most environmentally friendly traditional energy source and the most efficient one among relatively clean fuels. At the same time, the EU gas production keeps going down, which should result in consecutive growth in imports.
Scared by the concept of turning Russia (the main gas supplier) into an energy superpower Europe declared the course aimed at diversifying supplies at any cost. This obviously does not facilitate progress in constructive cooperation between traditional partners in the gas sphere. The frontline runs along the southern route of gas deliveries to Europe where Brussels supported by the USA is seeking to organize a Southern Corridor of supplies from the Caspian Sea region, Central Asia and the Middle East. In its turn, Moscow is trying to hold positions in the region by implementing the South Stream project. Meanwhile, both players have missed sharp strengthening of China’s positions in Central Asia, which makes this geopolitical solitaire even more confusing and intriguing.
The report will elaborate on the following issues:
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Forecast of the EU gas demand
- Prospects of production of traditional and untraditional gas in the EU
- Policies of energy efficiency and transfer to “green” fuels and their limits
- Possible scenarios of EU gas imports
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Policy of diversification of gas supplies to the EU
- New sources and new routes for delivering gas to Europe: Africa, the Middle East, the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia
- Turkey’s growing role of a transit state: economic and political consequences
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Struggle for Caspian Sea region
- Azerbaijan, the main gas supplier for Nabucco
- Gas strategies of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Iran, potential and political risks
- Strengthening of China’s role in the region
- Gas pipelines to China and formation of the new demand for gas
- Pricing of Central Asian gas
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Competition between South Stream and Nabucco
- Situation around gas sources
- Prospects of construction
- idea of integration of the projects
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Medium-term developments
The contents of the report:
| Introduction | 2 |
| Chapter 1. Europe needs gas | 3 |
| 1.1. The 2009 Results on the European Market, Prospects of Growth in the Gas Demand in the Medium-Term Perspective | 3 |
| 1.2. Decline in the EU Production and Growth in Dependence on Imports | 6 |
| 1.3. Shale Gas in Europe | 9 |
| Chapter 2. Suppliers of Gas to Europe: Competition or Cooperation? | 12 |
| 2.1. Norway | 14 |
| 2.2. Russia | 17 |
| 2.3. Northern Africa | 22 |
| 2.4. LNG in Europe | 25 |
| 2.5. Consolidation of producers: Gas Exporting Countries Forum, Russia-Qatar possible alliance | 27 |
| Chapter 3. Caspian Sea Region in Demand: Brussels’ Last Hope | 29 |
| 3.1. Resource Potential of the Caspian Sea Region | 29 |
| 3.2. Infrastructure Development | 31 |
| 3.3. Shakh Deniz-2: Bidding for Gas. Competition of Buyers | 35 |
| 3.4. Europe’s Prospects for Turkmen Gas, Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline | 37 |
| 3.5. Russia’s Battle with Southern Corridor | 40 |
| Chapter 4. China Reinforces Positions in Central Asia: Shadow Leader | 43 |
| 4.1. China’s Gas Policy in Central Asia | 44 |
| 4.2. Central Asia-China Pipeline | 46 |
| 4.3. China’s Risks, Russia’s Gas Projects in Central Asia | 47 |
| Chapter 5. Medium-Term Prospects of Developments | 50 |
| 5.1. Europe’s Medium-Term and Long-Term Demand for Gas Imports | 50 |
| 5.2. Need for New Infrastructure Projects | 51 |
| 5.3. Confrontation around Southern Corridor | 52 |
| 5.4. Central Asia | 53 |
| Date of issue: | 26th July 2010 |
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Other issues:
- State regulation in the oil and gas sector in 2011 and prospects for 2012
- The Present and Future of Gazprom
- State management in the oil and gas sector: Last autumn of current political cycle
- Central Asia and Caspian Region: Problems of Development and Transportation of Hydrocarbons
- Export Strategy of Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector
- Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector
- New Legal and Fiscal Procedures in the Oil and Gas Industry
- Prospects of Third Legislative Package Implementation, Future of European Gas Market
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2010, Outlooks for 2011
- Gazprom after Crisis: What Dreams May Come
- Nonresidents in the Russian Oil and Gas Sector: New Window of Opportunity?
- State System of Administrating the Oil and Gas Sector
- Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
- Anti-Crisis Policy in the Oil and Gas Sector And Its Consequences
- Western and Eastern Vectors of the Russian Oil and Gas Sector Development
- “Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2009 and Outlooks for 2010
- Gazprom: Plans, Risks, Prospects
- Emergence of a Putin-sponsored Oil and Gas Aristocracy: Clans at War for Property
- Offshore Wars and Distribution of New Oil and Gas Blocks
- Russian gas export routes: pipes and gas carriers
- State oil and gas sector management system: first year in new format
- New Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas Industry
- Central Asia and the Caspian Sea: a Trap or Salvation?
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009
- Domestic Market of Energy Resources: Current State and Future Prospects
- Global Market of Energy Resources: Main Development Trends and the Role of Russian Companies
- Nationalisation and Privatisation: Two Industry Development Tendencies
- War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia
- New Configuration of Political Power and the Oil and Gas Industry Management System
- Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?
- Statutory Framework of the Oil and Gas Industry
- Government regulation of the oil and gas industry in 2007 and future considerations for 2008
- The Merger of Gazprom and RAO UES and the New Gas and Electricity Pricing Patterns
- Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors
- The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project
- The Big Trade: Russian Companies Competing for Downstream Projects and Foreign Companies Seeking to Enter Upstream Projects
- Gazprom: are there Limits to the Growth?
- Pipeline Wars and New Routes of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia
- Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies
Special report:
Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:
State regulation in the oil and gas sector in 2011 and prospects for 2012
The year 2011 turned out to be rather contradictory for the oil and gas industry. On one side, preliminary results of basic parameters seem quite satisfactory. On the other side, the depletion of oil production growth potential is becoming more obvious. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin several times mentioned that the oil industry reached its peak. This was described as an ordinary event, although in reality it reflects recognition of strategic mistakes once made.The Present and Future of Gazprom
Gazprom’s 2010-2011 financial results were phenomenal. An employment contract of Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller, who has been managing the gas giant for 10 years, was prolonged ahead of time for another five years. However, the country’s main company found itself under powerful pressure both on the domestic and external markets.State management in the oil and gas sector: Last autumn of current political cycle
The main political intrigue of the upcoming election cycle would seem to be over. Vladimir Putin is set to return to the president’s office, while Dmitry Medvedev is to chair the Cabinet. But in reality, everything is just about to begin. Some scenarios of reformatting Russian state authorities are indeed ruled out. Yet, there are many unclear things, including the question of the oil and gas sector management. Changes in the system are unavoidable. There is temptation to fix the rules of the game for the next six years, which adds a special connotation to the upcoming transformation.Central Asia and Caspian Region: Problems of Development and Transportation of Hydrocarbons
Despite problems related to signing contracts on purchasing gas from the Caspian region countries, the European Commission is fully determined to implement Southern Corridor projects to reduce dependence on Russia. In its turn, Moscow keeps steadily promoting its alternative South Stream project. But the price of the question puts both sides into a difficult position.Export Strategy of Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector
In 2010 the Russian oil industry set an absolute record in terms of production. An oil pipeline to China has been launched this year expanding our potential of oil supplies to Asia. Diversification of export routes seemed to be quite a reasonable strategy on the background of growing production. However, there are certain factors that should be taken into account.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007