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Gazprom: Plans, Risks, Prospects

Gazprom: Plans, Risks, Prospects

The year 2009 has indeed been difficult for the Russian gas monopoly.

For the first time, the Aleksey Miller team have found themselves facing a substantial decline in earnings and a deficit of resources. At the same time, Gazprom remains among the key instruments of government policy for infrastructure development and investment expenditure which support the national industry.

Fluctuating demand for gas and a decline in prices in Europe coincided with a “gas war” with Ukraine, growing controversies with the European Union, and a conflict with Turkmenistan. Indeed, the gas consumption correction provided Gazprom with an unexpected respite prior to commissioning the new gas province on Yamal, without which a serious deficit of gas would be quite probable in just a few years.

The question is what use the gas corporation will make of it.

In a new report of the National Energy Security Fund you will find detailed answers to the following questions:

  • Gazprom in a circle of problems

    • A Decline in export revenue, a deficit of investment resources, and the need for large-scale investment in the upstream segment
    • Analysis of Gazprom’s modified investment programme
    • New production and pipeline priorities
    • Real production prospects for Yamal, Shtokman, Sakhalin, and Eastern Siberia
  • Gazprom in search of resources

    • “Carrots from Putin”: abandonment of the idea to increase the tax burden, a “rain of licences"
    • Reloading of relations with non-residents, enticing to the shelf and Yamal
  • The strategy for the former Soviet Union

    • Implications of the Russian-Ukrainian “gas war” and relations with “Slavonic transit providers”
    • The conflict with Turkmenistan and prospects for patching up holes in the gas balance with the help of Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas
  • The export strategy of Gazprom

    • Possible developments in the European gas market
    • The Third Legislative Package and the need to adjust Russian plans
    • Attempts at blackmailing Europe with diversification: LNG for the US and pipeline gas for China, how realistic such plans are
  • Gazprom and independent gas producers

    • Reasons for Novatek to appear on Yamal
    • The factor of Gennady Timchenko
  • The Aleksey Miller team in the era of declining incomes

    • The positions of top managers of the company
    • A change of investment priorities and possible staff changes
    • Reshuffles at major producing subsidiaries of Gazprom
    • Relations with the new government
    • Intermediate outputs of the confrontation with Igor Sechin
  •  
  • A medium-term forecast of developments

 

The contents of the report:

Introduction. 3
Chapter 1.Gazprom in Circle of Problems 5
1.1.Production Decline, Postponement of Yamal Commissioning Deadlines 6
1.2.Eastern Gas Programme: New Megaproject 8
1.3.Gazprom  Investments,  Debts  in  Conditions  of  Deficit  of  Resources 12
Chapter 2.Government Policy on Regulating Gas Sector.Acquisitions 14
2.1.Licences 15
2.2.Liberalisation of Access to Pipeline System 18
2.3.Taxes, Duties 19
2.4.Liberalisation of Prices in Domestic Market 21
2.5.Gas Supplies to Inter RAO: ‘Sechin’ Precedent 23
Chapter 3.Gazprom vs. Independent Gas Producers 27
3.1.Novatek Secrets 30
3.2.Rosneft: Victim of Bureaucratic Wars 34
3.3.Lukoil, TNK-BP: Dormant Potential 35
3.4.Itera: From Producer to Trader 36
Chapter 4.Gas Disputes with Ukraine,Turkmenistan.Azerbaijan as New Gas Supplier 38
4.1. Gas Relations between Russia, Ukraine after Another ‘War.’ Presidential Race, Risks of Failure to Honour Contractual Obligations 38
4.2.Central Asian Front 42
4.3. Azerbaijan Card 45
Chapter 5.Gazprom Export Strategy 46
5.1. Situation in European Market, Discussion about Pricing 47
5.2.‘Wars’ of Gas Pipelines 51
5.3.Russia’s Impolite Rejection of Energy Charter;Third Legislative Package for EU Gaz Market Liberalisation 54
5.4. LNG Ambitions, Far Eastern Megaproject 55
Chapter 6.Possible Developments 60
6.1.Prospects for Production Development, Implementation of Planned Infrastructure Projects by Monopoly 60
6.2.Gas Markets. Expectations of Demand 61
6.3.Political Situation about Corporation; Aleksey Miller Team 62
Date of issue December 09, 2009

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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