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Russia in struggle for European gas market

Russia in struggle for European gas market

The European gas market is in depression. The whole set of various factors, both subjective and objective, has led to negative dynamic of the demand.

Decrease in domestic production and fears of Brussels of enhanced dependence on imports provide powerful psychological pressure on policies in the gas sphere.

Quite high gas prices under long-term contracts linked to oil prices amid the crisis in the Eurozone and substantial state support to alternative energy sources reduce consumption of natural gas creating the effect of the excessive supply.

This situation is developing on the background of uncertainty in the sphere of regulation of infrastructure projects, which in the future will create additional risks for expansion of gas consumption and normal functioning of the market. Besides, Gazprom is facing antimonopoly prosecution by the European Commission.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Situation on gas markets in Europe and Turkey

    • Analysis of the level of production, consumption and imports
    • Dynamic of the demand for natural gas
  • EU pricing policies

    • Spot trade development, prospects of new principles of contracting gas supplies
  • Third energy package: from words to deeds

    • Application of third energy package rules on the national level
    • Corporate restructuring and sale of assets
    • Problem of investments in infrastructure
  • Russian gas strategy towards the EU

    • Pricing policies
    • Restructuring of European assets
    • Relations with national clients and supranational regulators
    • New export channels and their main problems
    • Prospects of liberalization of Russian gas exports
  • Diversification practice

    • Real prospects of emergence of new suppliers to the EU market, potential of unconventional gas
    • Competition between LNG and piped gas
  • Prospects of developments

The contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Situation on Gas Markets in Europe and Turkey 4
1.1. Decline in EU production 4
1.2. Sharp Decline in the Demand 5
1.3. Tendencies in the Sphere of Imports 9
1.4. Development of Spot Trade and Price Disbalance 11
1.5. Turkish Gas Market 13
Chapter 2. Third Energy Package: Regulation and Application 15
2.1. Main Provision of Gas Directive 15
2.2. Gas Target Model in the EU 17
2.3. Certification of gas network operators, processes of changing owners of gas transportation assets 19
2.4. Regulation of Gas Transportation Companies. Network Codes 24
2.5. Infrastructure Development 26
Chapter 3. Gazprom in Europe 29
3.1. Export Strategy: Balance Between Prices and Volume 29
3.2. Situation on Main Markets 32
3.3. Restructuring of European Assets 37
3.4. Confrontation With Brussels 39
3.5. Pressure on Single Export Channel 40
Chapter 4. Supplies Diversification Policy of the European Union 43
4.1. LNG in Europe 43
4.2. New LNG Projects in Europe 44
4.3. Baltic LNG 45
4.4. Adria LNG 47
4.5. AGRI 47
4.6. New LNG in Atlantic Basin 48
4.7. Gas From Caspian Region and Middle East 50
4.8. Shale Gas in Europe 52
4.9. Diversification of Gas Delivery Routes 53
Chapter 5. Medium-Term Prospects of Developments 57
5.1. Main Tendencies of European Gas Market Development 57
5.2. Opportunities for Gazprom 60
Date of release: March 25, 2013

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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