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State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2021, 2022 outlook

State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2021, 2022 outlook

The situation on oil and gas markets changed radically in 2021. Oil prices surged, and gas prices hit a record high. This situation was supposed to make Russian oil and gas companies and the Russian government happy, as the former generated quite good revenues and profits, while the latter had a budget surplus ensured by oil and natural gas exports.

ÎHowever, throughout the year, there were debates about the vague future of hydrocarbons. There were more and more predictions of the end of the oil epoch (followed by natural gas) on the background of the rising climate agenda and energy transition.

Therefore, in the past, such prices would lead to new investments in extraction of hydrocarbons, but these days they inspire a serious discussion whether it is necessary to encourage oil and natural gas production or to quickly start building the new economy.

The climate agenda in 2021 was in the epicenter of Russian debates about the future of the energy sector. Russia started readying for the CBAM launch in the EU that can radically alter economic relations with Europe.

Russia began contemplating about introduction of domestic carbon fees. Regulators started considering the future of oil and natural gas in Russia. The question is whether comfortable conditions for growth in capital investments in the sector should be created while prices are very high or whether it is better to keep milking the oil and gas sector that seems to be losing strategic prospects.

The report elaborates on the following topics:

New strategic documents on development of the oil and gas sector and their real meaning

  • Idle words or real target setting?

Production results of the year in the Russian oil and gas sector

  • The revenue and profit dynamics of Russian majors
  • Is there any extra money in the sector?

Oil production and exports

  • How does the easing of OPEC+ deal conditions and output restoration go?

The green agenda and its influence on the oil and gas sector

  • Formation of a principally new framework of carbon regulation
  • Russia’s position on carbon emissions control

The start of the hydrogen race in Russia

Finetuning the regulators: HR intrigues and battles between supervisors of the sector

Corporate wars: battles for Tambey and liberalization of piped gas exports; debates over oil transportation rules

  • Main participants and their administrative instruments

The LNG business as an example of successful lobbyism

Medium-term prospects of Russian oil and natural gas

  • What should the hydrocarbons business do to survive in the energy transition period

Contents of the report:

INTRODUCTION 3
PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL AND PRODUCTION RESULTS OF 2021 5
CORPORATE WARS AND HR FINETUNING 22
FORMATION OF THE CLIMATE AGENDA IN RUSSIA 37
Strengthening of the climate pressure on Russia. CBAM and COP26 38
Evolvement of the domestic carbon regulation system 40
The forest factor of the Russian climate policy 45
Low-carbon agenda in the financial and investment sphere 47
Plans of hydrogen industry development 49
STATE SUPPORT TO THE LNG BUSINESS 52
MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENTS 60
Date of release: January 27, 2022

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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