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Gazprom: the life in the epoch of sanctions, the turn towards the East, growing domestic competition

Gazprom: the life in the epoch of sanctions, the turn towards the East, growing domestic competition

Gazprom has found itself under double pressure. On one side, it is becoming more complicated for Gazprom to deal with the EU that strongly perceives the Russian company as an instrument of political pressure by Russia.

On the other side, the gas giant is attacked on the domestic market by large independent gas producers that are suffering from sanctions and count on expansion of their share on the domestic market as compensation. Besides, the period of low prices of hydrocarbons continues on the world market.

Yet, as the saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining. The political situation is assisting Gazprom in some way – at least, the question of the concern’s restructuring is not that acute on the agenda. Vladimir Putin is not ready to begin serious reforms in such complicated political and economic conditions. Yet, Gazprom still has to solve important tasks, e.g. to quickly reorient towards China, expand the domestic demand and find investments amid its limited access to credit markets.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Development of the domestic natural gas market

    • A new campaign against Gazprom by independent gas producers, outcomes
    • Weak consumption on the background of excessive production capacities
    • Pricing system: problems and prospects
    • Results of the first year of natural gas trade on the exchange
  • Gazprom on the European market

    • Demand for Russian natural gas in Europe and Turkey
    • Antimonopoly investigation by the European Commission, prospects
  • Gas transit difficulties, new gas transportation projects

    • European triangle: Nord Stream-2, Turkish Stream and Ukraine’s GTS
    • Stability of transit via Ukraine
    • New winter package: Ukraine is entering a new heating season
  • Gas turn towards Asia

    • Power of Siberia: transfer to construction stage
    • Negotiations on expansion of gas supplies to China
    • LNG in the Far East
  • Finances of Gazprom amid sanctions

    • The company’s investment program
    • Fiscal appetite of the state
  • Reforms in Gazprom’s corporate structure

  • Medium-term forecast of developments

Contents of the report:

INTRODUCTION 4
Chapter 1. DOMESTIC GAS MARKET: COMPETITION ON THE RISE, UNLIKE CONSUMPTION 5
1.1. Situation on the domestic market: weak consumption amid excessive production capacities 5
1.2. Pricing system, gas supplies to the market: regulatory zugzwang 13
1.3. Outcomes of the first year of gas exchange trade 17
1.4. New campaign on restructuring Gazprom 19
1.5. Natural gas motor fuel as new driver of Russia’s gas market 20
Chapter 2. GAZPROM AND UKRAINE: RISKS OF RADICALIZATION OF THE SITUATION 23
2.1. Gas balance of Ukraine on the threshold of winter 23
2.2. New winter package agreement 26
2.3. Natural gas transit through Ukraine 29
Chapter 3. GAZPROM IN EXTERNAL MARKETS 32
3.1. Standing of Gazprom on the EU market 32
3.2. Gazprom supplies to European markets 35
3.3. Situation on the Turkish market, supplies by Gazprom 38
3.4. Gas transportation triangle: Nord Stream-2, Turkish Stream, Ukraine’s GTS 41
3.5. Antimonopoly investigation of the European Commission, concept of the Energy Union 43
3.6. Diversification strategy: Eastern vector of Gazprom and LNG 47
Chapter 4. GAZPROM FINANCES, STAFF RESHUFFLE 52
4.1. Financial standing of Gazprom 52
4.2. Investment program 54
4.3. Debt burden of Gazprom 57
4.4. Fiscal appetite of the state 58
4.5. Personnel reshuffle at Gazprom 60
Chapter 5. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENTS 63
5.1. Domestic market 63
5.2. Ukraine 64
5.3. Export markets 64
5.4. Financial standing 65
Date of release: December 28, 2015

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Gazprom on Path to New Reality
Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
The subject of taxation became the absolute hit of 2018. The government once again decided to rewrite the rules of the game. President Putin’s new inauguration decree served as the main pretext. It turned out that about 8 trillion roubles extra was necessary for the new national projects announced. The Cabinet did not take long to decide where the funds should be taken. The result was acceleration of the so-called tax manoeuvre started as far back as 1 January 2015. It suggested shifting the tax burden to the wellhead: the effect on the state budget of gradual abandonment of the export duty will be more than compensated for by quicker growth in mineral resources extraction tax (MRET). The laws on tax reform have already gone through the parliament and will take effect as of next year. This means nothing good for companies.
Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector
New government structure and FES: Reformatting the state system administrating the sector

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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