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State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2015, prospects for 2016

State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2015, prospects for 2016

The traditional series of NESF reports is concluded with the final analysis of main events in the Russian oil and gas sector in 2015.

Oil prices kept falling, which affected the sector negatively and made the government again raise taxes on FES players.

Amid the growing state budget deficit and decreasing export revenues the Russian finance ministry again paid its fiscal attention to oil and gas companies. Meanwhile, the oil industry set another post-Soviet production record. The question is whether we will see recurrence of the situation observed in the late 1980s when a record high oil output was followed by its collapse.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Production results of the year

    • The analysis of the situation at Russia’s leading oil and gas companies
    • Results of production of oil, natural gas and oil products
    • Stagnation in the oil industry as reflection of investment problems; decline in the natural gas output as a result of marketing difficulties
  • The influence of sanctions and low prices on prospects of the sector development

    • Termination of the Arctic direction
    • The situation around offshore development
    • Problems with development of tight reserves in Western Siberia
    • Chinese and Indian companies in eastern projects – a new hope?
    • Saving on the future – reduction in investments in prospecting
  • Tax battles

    • Results of the tax maneuver
    • The finance ministry is looking for the devaluation margin
    • Repressive decisions at the end of the year: freezing the oil export duty rate and preserving the planned rise in the oil production tax; advance in the natural gas and condensate production taxes
    • The finance ministry is torpedoing the sector’s transfer to the financial result taxation
  • Activities of state regulators

    • The role of relevant ministries.
    • Main administrative battles: gas market reforms, offshore development, regulation of the oil services segment
  • Export policies

    • The turn towards the East continues
  • Prospects of developments

Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. 2015 PRODUCTION RESULTS 5
Chapter 2. STRUGGLE FOR THE TAX REGIME 25
Chapter 3. RUSSIA’S OIL AND GAS SECTOR IN THE CHANGING WORLD CONJUNCTURE 45
Chapter 4. TRANSFORMATION OF EXPORT STRATEGY 58
Chapter 5. STATE REGULATION OF THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR 67
FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENTS 80
Date of release: January 18, 2016

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019
Gazprom on Path to New Reality
Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
The subject of taxation became the absolute hit of 2018. The government once again decided to rewrite the rules of the game. President Putin’s new inauguration decree served as the main pretext. It turned out that about 8 trillion roubles extra was necessary for the new national projects announced. The Cabinet did not take long to decide where the funds should be taken. The result was acceleration of the so-called tax manoeuvre started as far back as 1 January 2015. It suggested shifting the tax burden to the wellhead: the effect on the state budget of gradual abandonment of the export duty will be more than compensated for by quicker growth in mineral resources extraction tax (MRET). The laws on tax reform have already gone through the parliament and will take effect as of next year. This means nothing good for companies.
Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector
New government structure and FES: Reformatting the state system administrating the sector

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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