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Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector

Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector

Preparations for the elections are accompanied by quite serious changes in the structure of property of oil and gas companies. After the elections this process will accelerate further. A plan of privatization in the next three years is already drafted; it will directly or indirectly affect assets in the oil and gas sector. There is also a less explicit “creeping privatization”, e.g. when the state transfers licenses on beneficial conditions to private companies removing other bidders from tenders. The number of such cases is growing. Privatization is an old goal of major administrative and political groups and the means of minimizing political risks in the period of enhanced political turbulence. Liberal experts have formed a firm opinion that the state presence in the sector is growing. In reality there is an opposite process. The matter is that new owners of assets are loyal people.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Main beneficiaries of privatization.

  • Privatization plan

    • What will the government sell for sure and what is likely to go on sale in the next three to six years
    • Prospects of selling Rosneft and Gazprom Neft
  • Role of foreign companies in privatization

    • Transfer of licenses to private companies on preferential terms with the aim to sell stakes in them to nonresidents
    • Cases of Trebs and Titov and Yamal projects
  • Possibilities of privatization in the gas industry

    • Prospects of emergence of new “Novateks”
  • The future of large private firms

    • Strategies of LUKOIL and TNK-BP, prospects of changing the companies’ shareholder structure
    • The future of TNK-BP in the context of the Rosneft-BP case
    • A possibility of disclosing real shareholders in Surgutneftegas
  • AFK Sistema’s involvement in the oil business

    • Reasons and future results
    • Consolidation of Bashneft and Russneft

The contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Gazprom: from Gathering to Asset Distribution 5
Consolidation of NOVATEATEK Shares 6
Transfer of Gazprombank to Bank Rossiya Clan 9
Story of Four Yamal Deposits 12
Sale of SeverEnergia 13
Sibneftegaz Story 16
Nortgaz Future 18
Sale of SIBUR Holding 19
Sale of Other Non-Core Assets 21
Role of Nonresidents in Privatization in Russia. Fate of TNK-BP 24
Role of Nonresidents in Privatization 24
BP-Rosneft Deal, Future of TNK-BP 27
Lukoil: diverse developments 34
Sistema in Oil business: New Gatherer of Assets 42
The “Putin Aristocracy” as Important Consequence of Privatization of Property 47
Siloviki Families 48
Families of Bank Rossiya Clan 49
Forecast of Developments 53
Date of issue: June 7th, 2011

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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