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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2016

The Fuel & Energy
Complex of Russia:
Reality and Possibilities – 2016

The National Energy Security Fund presents its traditional series of analytical reports on key problems of the Russian oil and gas industry development. Subscribers are provided with detailed description of the condition of the Russian fuel and energy sector, the state system administrating the sector, as well as scenarios of its development in the medium-term perspective.

The year 2016 is a period of anxious expectations. Oil and gas prices on world markets remain low; Western sanctions are still in force; budget problems make government increase the tax burden on oil and gas companies, as the latter are thought to have excessive profits. So, prospects of the oil and gas sector development need to be thoroughly addressed and studied.

The range of sources employed includes NESF’s in-house information, sectoral statistics, data from companies operating in the oil and gas sector, laws and bills, information from federal and regional mass media outlets, materials of conferences and round-table meetings.

The series consists of eight reports to be posted in March 2016 to January 2017

1. Forgotten shale: development of unconventional natural gas production and gas export potential of North America

(April 4, 2016)

In 2015 we described trends of development of shale oil projects in the USA. Meanwhile, the issue of shale gas production has not been in the forefront largely due to the oil boom that took away investments and drilling equipment from the gas production sector.

So, what is happening to shale gas in the USA? Should LNG supplies from North America be expected? How do they threaten Russian natural gas in the EU and Asia?

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2. Life under sanctions or is there light at the end of the import substitution tunnel?

(May 25, 2016 ãîäà)

The sector has been operating under Western financial, technological and marketing sanctions for over a year.

How are they affecting the current and, most importantly, promising projects? What nonresidents have left the Russian sector? What is the position of those that have stayed? How efficient is the declared policy of import substitution, including the services business and production of oil and gas equipment? Where does the sector get credit resources?

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3. The Middle East: the earthquake on the world market of hydrocarbons

(July 21, 2016)

Developments in the Middle East attract greater attention because this region defines, to a great extent, the future of the world market of hydrocarbons. Russia has joined the big game that traditionally involves the USA, the EU, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

How soon will Iran return to the European market and increase its exports? Will it manage to enter the world natural gas market? How will pipeline projects planned in this unstable region be developing, including the Turkish Stream? Could such political projects as creation of Kurdistan be implemented? How will they influence the oil and gas palette of the region and the world?

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4. Main regulators of oil and gas battles

(October 18, 2016)

The political turbulence is growing not only outside. Administrative competition is strengthening inside the country. It has evident consequences for the sector.

The number of conflicts is expanding; key regulators are engaged in all of them. It concerns such issues as access of private companies to offshore deposits, restructuring of the gas industry, the future of the fiscal regime and policies in the sphere of subsoil management. There are many reasons to examine staff preferences and efficiency of relevant ministers and ministries.

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5. The European gas market – the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package

(November 29, 2016)

The EU gas market is key for Russia in terms of exports. How is the European gas market developing? How is it being liberalized and how is it switching to the new rules of the game through implementation of the Third Energy Package? What is the future of natural gas in the European market? Will we manage to retain our share on it and where alternative suppliers should be expected to come from?

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6. Tax policies towards the oil and gas sector amid the budget deficit

(December 7, 2016)

The NESF’s report on taxation is, unfortunately, becoming traditional. It’s a pity because we would like to see the sector having a stable fiscal regime based on the world’s best practices. However, it is not happening.

On the contrary, on the background of the growing budget deficit the sector is facing new fiscal charges declared as temporary measures. Yet, there are serious doubts about them, given that the country is entering a new election cycle.

Prospects of substituting taxation of revenues with taxation of profits are doubtful. The so-called “Kudrin scissors” are accompanied by other instruments of withdrawing the money from the oil and gas sector.

7. Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender

(December 29, 2016)

The situation in Gazprom is one of the most exciting in the sector.

The attack on the giant in 2015 failed, but Rosneft and NOVATEK are readying for new attempts. Efforts to convince Putin to sanction restructuring of the concern continue.

Disputes with the EU that is pursuing the supply diversification policy are sill in place. Asian economies are in the zone of turbulence that forms uncertainty around the demand for natural gas.

The financial situation in the company is not simple. Yet, Gazprom has already demonstrated its ability to resist domestic and foreign opponents. It is one of the few Russian natural monopolies that reformers have failed to reach.

8. State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017

(January 12, 2017)

NESF traditionally concludes the year with a final report that sums up main events and tendencies of the year. The report contains the analysis of production results of the year and main state decisions concerning the sector, it describes struggle for assets by leading clans, as well as provides a traditional forecast of the sector’s development in the medium-term perspective.

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Russian Oil Sector under Sanctions Pressure: Lessons of Survival
Arctic Projects during Energy Pivot to East
Green Agenda in Russia in New Political Epoch
Hydrogen Agenda in Russia during Economic War with West
Russian Oil Exports: from Covid-induced Demand Collapse to Sanctions War

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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