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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2017
The Fuel & Energy
Complex of Russia:
Reality and Possibilities – 2017
The National Energy Security Fund presents its traditional series of analytical reports on key problems of the Russian oil and gas industry development.
Subscribers are provided with detailed description of developments in the Russian fuel and energy sector, the state system regulating the sector, as well as scenarios of its development in the medium-term perspective.
The year 2017 will not be easy. Prices of hydrocarbons are unlikely to bounce back quickly, while the appetite of the Cabinet will remain high. Holes in the state budget have to be plugged, and taxes on the fuel and energy sector will have to be increased. Meanwhile, there are speculations about possible freezing of oil production, which raises the question about the already made investments.
Companies threaten to cut capital expenses, but the government does not seem to care. On foreign markets Russia is struggling to retain its share in the structure of EU imports of hydrocarbons, and hoping to expand its presence in Asia, despite rather tough competition.
The range of sources employed includes sectoral statistics, data from companies operating in the oil and gas sector, laws and bills, information from federal and regional mass media outlets, materials of conferences and workshops, as well as NESF’s in-house information.
The series consists of eight reports to be posted in March 2017 to January 2018.
1. Asia market: potential of Russian oil and gas exports to the East
(March 27, 2017)
It has become commonplace to believe that Asia will drive the world consumption of hydrocarbons. So, what are the real opportunities provided by Asian markets? Is Russia capable of competing successfully on Asian oil and gas markets?
The report is to reveal the actual potential of Asian markets of hydrocarbons, and to assess our prospects, considering the Russian export potential and capacities of our main competitors.
2. Three years under sanctions: their influence on Russia’s FES
(May 15, 2017)
Time flies. It has been three years since spring 2014 when Crimea came back to Russia. That served as the ground to impose the first round of anti-Russian sanctions that later were only strengthening.
We will try to find out how they have affected the Russian oil and gas sector. Where do domestic companies find financing, how do they solve technical problems of the production segment development, what is going on in the oil and gas machinery segment and services business?
A separate question is how foreign companies have acted over the past three years; which of them have left or remained, and what strategies they employ?
3. World market of LNG: who is the main beneficiary?
(July 3, 2017)
There is a widespread opinion that the gas market is going through irreversible and significant changes.
LNG is said to become the main driver of changes; it will glue regional markets of America, Europe and Asia to each other. However, at present piped gas imports are twice as large as LNG imports. The piped gas market has been growing faster over the past few years. Europe has invested huge resources in creation of LNG receiving capacities, but they are utilized by one third only.
How reasonable are forecasts of explosive growth in LNG production? What will be the size of expected waves of LNG supplies from America, Australia and Eastern Africa? What can be offered by Russia that launches its new LNG plant in Yamal in 2017, and plans to expand capacity of its currently sole LNG plant in Sakhalin?
4. Petrochemistry, gas chemistry: difficult path to high value-added products
(September 4, 2017)
Only the lazy would not mention the necessity to produce high value-added commodities. On one side, there is some vivid progress in this sphere. Substantial funds have been invested in oil refining; there are more and more projects implemented in the gas chemistry segment. Yet, these segments are facing challenges.
The output of dark oil products is still very large; new technologies are not very quickly introduced in the sector, while tax regulation raises more and more questions.
5. Russia’s oil and gas sector in 2025: description of the future
(October 9, 2017)
Russian authorities keep drafting different programs, e.g. the development strategy of the fuel and energy sector in general, and of the oil and gas sectors separately. The forecast of scientific and technological development of fuel industries has appeared recently. There is forecasting and planning until 2035 and even further. However, the correctness of such forecasts and plans makes the professional community smile.
NESF offers its own outlook over the next ten years.
We will present the paths the sector is facing, and which one it may follow. Our task is to assess not only the situation around production of hydrocarbons and replenishment of hydrocarbon resources. How will the sector look like from the point of view of its structure? Will the ministry of oil industry be restored through Rosneft expansion or, on the contrary, quick privatization of assets by leading clans will begin? Will there be large-scale restructuring of the gas sector in this regard or this question will be postponed?
The presidential term of Vladimir Putin is to end in 2024. After that he will have to step down. What will the sector look like at the end of the Putin epoch?
6. Fiscal novelties: from the tax maneuver to new experiments
(November 13, 2017)
The oil and gas industry can just dream of having a stable tax regime. NESF would be glad to describe the tax system in one report and get back to this topic five years later at least. But, unfortunately, the number of changes in fiscal regulation has become so large that we have to address this topic constantly. Our report about taxation has already become annual – there are too many changes within 365 days.
Tax novelties send shockwaves in the sector. Export duties are being replaced with the hydrocarbons production tax; experiments with the excess profit tax have begun; excises are changing; the government is debating on how to alter taxation of the refining segment.
The finance ministry constantly puts forward new ideas, e.g. either to take away devaluation revenues or to nullify allocated preferences. Meanwhile, the upcoming presidential elections do not promise anything positive for the sector in terms of a tax dialogue with the state.
7. Gazprom on domestic and foreign markets: how to distribute the gas pie
(December 11, 2017)
The topic of reforms in the domestic gas market remains one of the dominant issues on the FES development agenda.
Independent producers are striving for liberalized access to the infrastructure (it would be ideal for them to have the transportation and production segments separated from Gazprom); they lobby adoption of the network code that would stipulate decrease in tariffs of natural gas transportation and storing at underground gas storages. They would very much like to take part in distribution of exports. Expansion on the domestic market has practically reached its limit. Some large independent producers have achieved the peak of their production capacity, which makes them look for new incomes more and more aggressively.
Gazprom is in the situation when growth in exports does not lead to larger revenues because of low export prices. Meanwhile, on the domestic market the gas giant has to cede regions to competitors. There is a paradoxical situation: independent producers have increased their presence on the domestic market without reforms; they do not invest in the gas supply infrastructure and do not guarantee stable operation during peak consumption in winter. So, what is in store for the gas industry?
8. State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2017, prospects for 2018.
(January 12, 2018)
NESF traditionally concludes the year with a final report that sums up major events and tendencies of the year. The report contains the analysis of preliminary production results and main state decisions concerning the sector’s development and functioning. It describes struggle for assets, changes in export policies, and, certainly, the medium-term forecast of the sector’s development.
If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.
Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.
Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017
We traditionally conclude the year with our final report that sums up main events and tendencies of the outgoing year. The report analyzes preliminary production results, main state decisions concerning the sector, the struggle for property, changes in export policies, and, certainly, forecasts of the sector development in the medium-term perspective.
Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender
The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
The new report analyses the condition of the EU gas market, considers regulation practices and new initiatives planned for introduction, reviews infrastructure projects, and assesses prospects of the European gas market in the medium term.
Main regulators of oil and gas battles
Russia's political system has clearly become vibrant. Resignations and new appointments, personnel purging and scandals – these factors have become a new norm of current politics in Russia. Administrative competition in the country is growing, and it has evident outcomes in the oil and gas sector. The number of conflicts is expanding, while the role of state regulators is becoming very significant. Moreover, interests of companies in the sector do not always coincide, which puts regulators into a complicated situation. The National Energy Security Fund is focusing on key sectoral conflicts that relevant ministries and services are engaged in.
Middle East: an earthquake on the world market of hydrocarbons
Developments in the Middle East attract great attention. Many experts believe this region plays a major role in formation of oil prices and the future of the world market of hydrocarbons. The situation in the region is indeed developing very quickly. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has put an end to plans of creating OPEC-2. Saudi Arabia is changing its strategy, while Iran is increasing its presence on the world oil market; the latter also intends to become a serious natural gas exporter being ready to join the South Corridor project and intriguing against Russia. Meanwhile, the war in Syria may intensify at any moment affecting Iran’s production potential and Turkey’s transit possibilities. These events directly influence the supply of hydrocarbons on the market. It means all oil producers are concerned about them, at least because they need to understand the level of oil prices in the future.
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