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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2018

The Fuel & Energy
Complex of Russia:
Reality and Possibilities – 2018

The National Energy Security Fund announces its traditional series of analysis reports dedicated to the central issues of Russian fuel and energy sector development. Subscribers are presented with a detailed picture of the state of affairs in the fuel and energy sector, the industry’s most urgent problems, the system of government regulation of the oil and gas industry, and scenarios of its development in the medium term.

The year 2018 is a time when a new structure of the executive will be formed after the presidential election. Among the things that will directly affect oil and gas are potential large-scale changes in regulatory agencies and the fact that some companies in the sector actively participate in the fight for creating a new structure of bureaucracy.

The parameters of further co-operation with OPEC will have to be determined: the OPEC+ deal has become a new factor influencing the fate of the upstream segment in the Russian oil industry.

Disputes over new tax treatment and incentives for oil and gas companies will definitely continue, the more so because an experiment with AIT will begin.

External sanctions, already an essential part of the life of oil and gas corporations, have the potential for being made heavier. Battles over internal gas market reform and gas export liberalisation will not become less fierce. It will definitely not be boring – it never is in Russia.

The sources we use include our own information, industry statistics, information published by oil and gas companies, laws and bills, information published by federal and regional media outlets, and material made available at conferences and round table discussions.

The series consists of eight reports to be posted in March 2018 to January 2019.

1. American Shale: Life in Trump Era

(April 23, 2018)

The American President at once clearly outlined his energy priorities by calling renewable energy a waste of money and placing his bet on hydrocarbons. This is excellent news for American shale companies. But other oil producers have a very cautious position on the American shale industry.

You will learn from the report how the US shale industry influences the global oil prices and the prolongation of the OPEC+ deal. How the financing of the shale industry is organised and in what way American shale companies manage to attract funding and survive in conditions of relatively low prices for hydrocarbons. Why many speak about a “shale bubble,” but it won’t burst. Moreover, it remains a nightmare for Russia and Saudi Arabia.

A separate topic is how the production of shale gas develops and if there is reason for maintaining super-optimistic forecasts about the export of American LNG. It is especially so since Trump is ready to work actively as an American gas salesman.

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2. New Government Structure and Fuel & Energy Sector: Reformatting Government Control of Industry

(May 14, 2018)

The election of the Russian President is over, followed by quite serious reshuffles in government agencies. This directly concerns oil and gas.

A new system to regulate the industry has been formed. “Hot on the heels,” we analyse the changes that have occurred: what the new people will introduce, who they are, why they have got their new appointments, how the bureaucratic balance has changed, what the leading companies should get ready for, and how the agenda will change in the relations between corporations and regulators.

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3. Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Coil Tightening

(June 25, 2018)

The optimistic scenario has not come true: the Western sanctions have not only been preserved, but made heavier. The US passed a new law on sanctions in August 2017 and was busy actively explaining them for the rest of the year. Also, compromising information about potential violators was leaked.

The pressure of sanctions is becoming harder and harder. Our report will explain what exact projects have already been frozen. How the new sanctions work. Where Russian companies look for funding. Whether non-residents are scared.

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4. Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Get Ready for?

(August 20, 2018)

Surprising: it would seem that nothing is unknown about the workings of the global oil market. But something is. Disputes about the nature of prices and, accordingly, their future dynamics do not subside. Indeed, the future of the OPEC+ deal is known; but one must understand how it will influence the market in the medium term. The generally accepted point of view is that huge investment has been withdrawn from the industry in recent years, so it will face a deficit of supply. Is that so? Are we to expect growth in prices in the medium term for that reason?

From our report you will learn the NESF opinion on the most expensive question of the time: how much oil will cost. And what Russian oil production should expect from its direct competition.

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5. Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector

(November 12, 2018)

One consequence of the sanctions and the conflict with the West is that the U-turn to the East has been stepped up. From a rhetorical construct it has turned into quite an obvious choice.

How Eastern Siberia is developed. How new infrastructure is used. What preferences Chinese and Asian companies in general get on the Russian market and how their expansion in Russia develops. What problems arise from the redirection of oil from Western Siberia to the east, including the quality of oil. What difficulties Russian pipeline gas faces on its way to Asia. How Russian LNG, “old” from Sakhalin and “new” from Yamal, fights for its place in the Asian sun.

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6. Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued

(November 24, 2018)

The law on additional income tax (AIT) was supposed to become the start of “a new life”: it was about introducing a taxation system that was innovative for Russia and would make it possible to switch from taxing revenue to taxing profits. Oil companies had fought for that for years. However, they do not seem to be happy, as they are now fighting aggressively not for the new taxation philosophy, but for keeping their good old benefits.

Special attention is given to oil refining, the main victim to the latest innovations. The overall state of affairs in the Russian economy and a shortage of government revenue strongly influence the situation. Besides, it is important to take a look at how regulators have changed their position on the taxation problem after the reshuffles in government agencies in spring.

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7. Gazprom on Path to New Reality

(December 30, 2018)

The situation with Gazprom is, as always, controversial.

On the one hand, gas supply to Europe is on the rise despite fierce political resistance. One record is set after another. New transport infrastructure keeps on being created for supplying gas to the EU. On the other, confrontation with independent gas producers continues inside the country.

The topic of possible gas industry reform persists on the agenda. The independents are pressed for time: their limited resources cause them to step up their efforts. They demand at least access to export by pipeline, if not restructuring of Gazprom – and LNG export not controlled by Gazprom has already begun. The pressure on Vladimir Putin will only increase. But the question is whether the possible reform will give Russia a stronger position in foreign markets and whether it will create better conditions for users in the domestic market.

How stable Gazprom’s position is in its fight against the independents; in competition on external markets; in conditions of sanctions and relatively low prices that have coincided with large investments in new gas pipelines – all this will be discussed in detail in our report.

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8. Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2018, Prospects for 2019

(January 14, 2019)

It is our tradition to finish the year with a concluding report that sums up the main events and trends of the year.

You will find in it analysis of preliminary production results, the key government decisions concerning the industry, the fight for property, and changes in export policy; and of course, a forecast of the industry’s development in the medium term.

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If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Russian Oil Sector under Sanctions Pressure: Lessons of Survival
Arctic Projects during Energy Pivot to East
Green Agenda in Russia in New Political Epoch
Hydrogen Agenda in Russia during Economic War with West
Russian Oil Exports: from Covid-induced Demand Collapse to Sanctions War

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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