Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2023

The National Energy Security Fund announces its traditional series of analysis reports dedicated to the central issues of Russian fuel and energy sector development.

The series, as usual, consists of eight reports to be published in March 2023 through February 2024.

In late February it will be a year of a totally different life for the Russian oil and gas sector. The heaviest sanctions have been thrown at it. These include denial of access to the capital market, and a ban on technology supplies, and most important of all, an attempt to remove Russian oil, petroleum products, and natural gas from Western markets.

An embargo on crude oil supplies to the EU took effect in late 2022 and a price cap mechanism was launched, which cannot but affect the volumes of oil and gas condensate production and exports.

A ban on supplies of petroleum products to the EU will come into force on 5 February. Supplies of natural gas as of late 2022 were about 20% of the 2021 level.

The fuel and energy sector has found itself in a totally new arena. Logistics, the client base, and the sales system are changing radically.

How are companies managing the pressures? What does the government do (or omit to do) to support oil and gas? Is the search for new markets a success? What does the new supply scheme look like? Have Russian energy relations with the EU been severed for good? There are very many questions – and these are what we shall look into thoroughly in our reports.

The series, as usual, consists of eight reports to be published in March 2023 through February 2024.

1. Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?

(15  May, 2023)

We shall not describe the situation with supplies to the EU and G7 markets (this will be done in other reports of the series). However, this research will let one understand if there has been complete severance with the West in energy.

We shall find out if any Western companies have remained in Russia and if Russian corporations have been able to keep at least something in Western states.

We shall see how Western countries took away property and how Russian regulators treated the assets of corporations from unfriendly countries. We shall judge if schemes have arisen for withdrawal from Russia that provide for a swift return if the political situation changes. And if Eastern companies have arrived in place of Western ones; in what capacity and in what numbers.

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2. Russian Oil Industry: Life under Price Cap

(11 September, 2023)

For more than a year now the Russian oil industry has felt the pressure of heaviest sanctions. The most recent have been a price cap and an embargo on seaborne supplies of petroleum products to Europe.

Can the industry maintain production? Has it found long-term alternatives to Europe and how will the pivot to the East be completed? How does the government support the oil sector?

3. Outlook for Russian LNG Industry (22 May 2023)

(19 June, 2023)

LNG production in Russia showed good performance in 2022. Even the EU increased purchases of Russian liquefied gas.

Government regulators also support the industry believing this to be a way for more efficient redirection of supplies.

However, the greatest hardship is ahead. How will technology sanctions affect new projects? Is there a chance to launch the first production train of Yamal LNG 2 on time and what will happen to the other Novatek projects? What awaits active plants after sanctions; for example, what has been happening to Sakhalin-2 since Shell pulled out? What is the status of the development of domestic technology for large-scale LNG production? What is the new LNG strategy of Gazprom?

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4. ‘Green Agenda’ in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West

(21 August, 2023)

In spite of declared hard severance with the West, the “green” subject stays afloat in Russia.

Lobbyists for the “green agenda” and renewable energy keep on insisting that Russia needs this. After all, the subject has already been launched and promoted as a way to modernise the Russian economy. So budgets need to be wrung out for these purposes.

Has “green” finance any prospects in Russia? Will carbon payment be introduced in Russia? Can the subject of climate become a factor for talks with the EU? Are we to expect a real breakthrough in hydrogen? Will Asian countries like China demand taking account of the carbon footprint of commodities in bilateral trade?

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5. Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact

(4 September 2023)

At a meeting on Russian energy sector development during crisis, as far back as 14 April 2022, Vladimir Putin declared that policy documents on the fuel and energy sector need to be updated, urgently.

They wanted to approve the Energy Strategy to 2050 before 15 September 2022, but later the deadline was put off until mid-2023. That was reasonable: otherwise the changes would be patently formal. However, it is not enough to get more time to draw up the text. More important is to alter the very approach to writing it. All earlier versions of the Energy Strategy were either empty statements or obvious lobbying victories of individual corporations. It is not quite clear, though, why the new version of the Energy Strategy will avoid the flaws of the previous one which is a far cry from the actual situation in markets.

However, NESF will attempt to reconstruct the actual strategy of the state which the Energy Ministry dares not set forth on paper. And show actual problems demanding a solution.

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6. New Logistics of Russian Oil Business

(13 November 2023)

The sanctions have launched the process of reorientation of Russian oil exports away from Europe towards Asia. The European market is practically closed to seaborne supplies.

Now interim results can be summed up concerning how the new system of Russian oil transport works. Whether there are enough ships; and whether Russian shipbuilding has prospects or oil companies will have to keep on searching for and buying up old tankers on the market. The role of the Northern Sea Route in the removal of hydrocarbons.

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7. Gazprom during Banishment from European Market

(11 December 2023)

Gazprom keeps on losing the European gas market.

Has, however, the “point of no return” indeed been passed and the EU gas market been forever closed to supplies by pipeline from Russia? How successful is Gazprom in looking for options for maintaining business with Europe? The fate of the Turkish hub and chances of restoring transit across the Baltic Sea. Options for piping gas through Central Asian and Caucasian countries. Actual rates of the natural gas pivot to the East.

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8. Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2023 and Prospects for 2024

(22 January 2024)

It is our tradition to finish the series with a concluding report that sums up the main events and trends of the year.

You will find in the report not only analysis of interim production results, but an assessment of the efficiency of government regulators’ support for the oil and gas industry that has found itself under unprecedented pressure of sanctions. We will also make a forecast of Russian fuel and energy sector development in the medium term.

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